War, Gas Prices, And A Brewing GOP Problem

Americans are turning on the war and the political fallout could hit Republicans hard

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Welcome to the Polling USA House model for March 22, 2026!

Another week in the books as Trump’s war against Iran continues unabated, while energy prices continue to rise and stockpiles dwindle, the American economy is heading for a downturn all the same.

What will that do for the political situation back home? We’ll have to wait and see how Americans react to the war, rising gas prices, and other unintended consequences of the war in due time, though we do have early inklings thanks to recent reporting.

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Nevertheless, the topline result remains much the same this week with the Democrats at 235 seats on the House model, and the Republicans at 200.

You’ll notice the swanky new graph above, which now shows the likely seat range on the model, which currently has the Democrats between 217 and 242 seats, while the Republicans are between 193 and 218.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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