War Fatigue Is Here and It's Hitting Trump Hard
New polling shows Americans turning on the war effort as Republicans face growing political headwinds
Welcome to the Polling USA model for April 5, 2026!
With the oil markets threatening to spike further after Trump’s less than reassuring address to the nation Wednesday evening, his polling on the Iran war front isn’t any more cheery. As the war drags on, the situation for Trump becomes more untenable, with pressure mounting on his administration.
More on those numbers in a minute.
The Democrats and Republicans are stable this week, with the Democrats winning 236 seats on the current House model, while the Republicans pick up the other 199. The Democratic likely seat range sits between 220 and 244, while the Republicans would be expected to win anywhere between 191 and 215 seats.
The Senate situation remains stable as well, with the Republicans expected to win 51 seats on the current averages, and the Democrats picking up the other 49. Though, the Democrats’ floor ticked up one seat this week, while the Republicans’ ceiling moved inversely, as Republicans would win between 48 and 54 Senate seats, while the Democrats would be between 46 and 52.
Overall, the Democrats maintain their lead in the House race, while the Senate still favors the Republicans, if not in a coin flip environment at the moment.
Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.