Voters’ Priorities Are A Nightmare for Republicans
Voter frustration over costs creates a wide opening for Democrats in the midterms
With the midterms approaching and the primary season even closer, Americans have been remarkably consistent about what they see as the biggest issues facing the country, while also giving Trump poor marks on handling many of them.
Right now, 21% say inflation and prices remain their top concern, while another 14% point to jobs and the economy, while 11% each pick immigration and healthcare.
Another 8% say civil rights are the most important issue, 7% cite civil liberties, and 6% rank crime as the biggest issue facing the nation today.
Voters across party lines place inflation and the cost of living at the top of the list, with 25% of Republicans and 19% of Democrats and Independents saying so. The real divide emerges when looking at what each party considers the second and third most important issues.
Republicans, unsurprisingly, rank immigration and jobs next. Democrats say civil rights and jobs follow behind inflation, while Independents are the only group to place healthcare in their top three, alongside inflation and the economy.
Many Americans remain deeply dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of the cost of living. Around 58% say they disapprove of how he is dealing with the issue, compared to just 35% who approve. He also gets poor marks on the economy more broadly, with 53% disapproving of his handling of it and 39% approving.
Trump performs best on immigration and national security, though even there his numbers are underwater. On immigration, 44% approve of his handling, while 52% disapprove, while his approvals on national security sit at 43% approve and 49% disapprove.
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All of this gives Democrats a significant opening in the midterm elections to go after Republicans on the issues voters care about most. While many voters remain wary of Democrats on inflation, given lingering memories of Biden’s handling of the issue, those memories may increasingly be replaced by Trump’s current performance by the time November arrives.
The main lines of attack for Democrats this year are likely to be healthcare, the economy, and to a lesser extent, immigration. With the economy stagnating and Trump’s tariffs pushing up the cost of goods, Democrats have a clear opportunity to go on offense, even though YouGov still finds them trailing Republicans by two points on which party Americans think would handle the economy better.
Healthcare is a natural issue for Democrats to run on, and one where they often hold a clear advantage. The latest YouGov poll shows 42% saying they trust Democrats most on healthcare, compared to 25% who say the same for Republicans, while another 16% say they trust both parties equally.
Immigration is the issue Democrats will have to handle most carefully. With the way ICE is engaging in, let’s be honest, what many see as domestic terrorist actions against the American public, Democrats will have to walk a fine line. Some have argued a return to the Obama-era messaging on immigration gives the Democrats ample cover, highlighting that Democrats will focus on border security, with the added clause of removing ICE from America’s cities and allowing local law enforcement to carry out local responsibilities.
(Let’s be honest, for those Democrats who are averse to saying ‘Abolish ICE’ the least they can run on is ‘Support local law enforcement and get ICE out of America’s cities’)
Republicans, meanwhile, will lean heavily on immigration and crime, with their declarations that Alex Pretti and Renee Good are domestic terrorists signaling the direction they plan to take. In the end, Republicans will paint those they kill as enemies of the state, while Democrats will desperately need to fight back on the issue, as staying quiet and avoiding immigration this election is not an option.
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The real question is where independents land. Republicans and Democrats are largely locked into their respective camps, but independents will decide how the midterms break.
On healthcare, independents are far more likely to trust Democrats (38%) than Republicans (12%), with 22% saying they trust both parties equally.
On immigration, independents are split. Some 28% trust Republicans more, and another 28% say the same of Democrats, a notable improvement from the six point deficit Democrats face among all voters on the issue. Another 28% are unsure, while 16% say both parties would handle it equally well.
On the economy, Democrats also lead among independents, with 30% trusting them more, compared to 21% for Republicans, and 22% saying both parties would handle it equally well.
The key takeaway from the independent vote is how many remain undecided about which party they trust on the biggest issues, and that among those who have made up their minds, there is a noticeable lean toward Democrats.
That advantage is already showing up in generic ballot polling, which has consistently found Democrats with solid leads among independents, a shift from the near 50/50 split seen in 2024.