Tweaks To The Polling USA Model
Closer races, new interactive House and Senate maps, and this week's update
Welcome to the Polling USA model for April 19, 2026!
With the situation in the Middle East trundling along for the Trump administration, and a flurry of mixed messages from both sides as per usual, the situation on the polling front isn’t dramatically different.
There was a notable shift in the House model, but not because of any polling shift. I’ve adjusted the model regarding a number of the closest seats in Congress, which I’ll explain below the subscriber line.
Nevertheless, the Democrats sit at 230 seats on the current model, with their likely seat count between 209 and 242, which is naturally much closer and more competitive than the pre-model adjustment result.
At the same time, the Republicans sit at 205 seats, with their likely seat count between 193 and 226, suggesting the result for Republicans could keep them in the majority if the polling error broke hard for them.
The Senate side of things remains quiet, with the Republicans at 51 seats, with a range of 48 to 54 seats, and the Democrats at 49 seats, with a range of 46 to 52 seats.
Let’s chat about the model changes and take a look at the brand new interactive Senate and House maps!