Trump’s Turbulent Year Isn’t Sinking the GOP's Chances

The economy’s on edge, troops are in the streets, and the polls haven’t budged

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Welcome to the Polling USA House model for October 8, 2025!

The situation has remained much the same over the past month, with the Republicans and Democrats locked in a stalemate in the polling averages. That is despite the fact that Trump is pushing the economy to the edge, sending the National Guard into major cities like Chicago and Portland, and still being plagued by the Epstein files.

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Despite it all, the Republicans are still holding firm in the seat count, sitting at 207 seats on average, while the Democrats remain at 228. Still a win for the Democrats in the House next November, though not as large a win as they might like, all things considered.

Let’s dive deeper into the model results and discuss some of those previously mentioned issues.

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