The Republican Collapse Is Picking Up Speed
Fresh surveys show Democrats strengthening their position with just months until election day
Welcome to the Polling USA model for August 2, 2026!
Give it up for rising gas prices this week as the reason we’re seeing a Democratic rebound in the averages! Democrats have risen a full point in the averages this week to sit at +6.5%, so let’s take a look at the situation.
On the House front, Democrats have gained four seats on average to end at 228, while Republicans have fallen four seats to 207. The likely seat count for the Democrats is between 212 and 243, while Republicans are between 192 and 223, meaning there’s still a path for Republicans to control the House should the averages swing in their favour.
On the Senate front, we see a return to 52 Democratic Senate seats while Republicans are back down to 48. Republicans now sit between 46 and 52 seats, while Democrats are between 48 and 54 seats. There’s been plenty of stronger polling at both the state and generic ballot level to help Democrats on this front.
Lastly, there’s been a slight uptick for the Democrats in the governor races, with Democrats rising to 27 seats and Republicans dipping to 23 seats (This is because Nevada inched over the line for the Democrats). Republicans sit between 20 and 27 seats on the likely average, while Democrats are between 23 and 30.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!
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