The Midterm Map Is Refusing to Budge
Every new poll tells a story, but the overall map continues to resist change
Welcome to the Polling USA model for July 26, 2026!
With primaries in a number of states, particularly Michigan, taking place next Tuesday, we’re in for a wild ride! Until then, the situation across the various levels of government remains largely unchanged, though several new polls are making headlines beneath the surface.
In the House model, the Democrats sit at 224 seats this week, while the Republicans are at 211. This puts the Democrats' likely seat range between 209 and 242 seats, while the Republicans are between 193 and 226 seats, still giving the Democrats an outside chance of losing the House based on the current results.
The Senate picture remains the same this week, with both the Democrats and Republicans sitting at 50 seats each. Not only that, but they continue to share the same likely seat range as well, with both parties between 48 and 52 seats, suggesting the race for the Senate remains very much a toss-up.
Meanwhile, Democrats received a slight boost in the governor's races this week, although their overall averages remain unchanged. The Democrats sit at 26 seats, with a likely range of 23 to 30 seats, while the Republicans sit at 24 seats, with a likely range of 20 to 27 seats.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!
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