The GOP’s Midterm Nightmare Is Taking Shape

Texas infighting, redistricting overreach, and a shrinking national coalition spell danger ahead for the Republicans

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Welcome to the Polling USA House model for February 8, 2026!

This week ended with Donald Trump reposting a racist AI-generated video on Truth Social that, in part, depicted Michelle and Barack Obama as gorillas, something that caused so much backlash that even Republicans called the President out.

Perhaps in some depressing irony, it seems that the video, which should absolutely be called out, drew more ire from Republicans against the President than the shooting of two American citizens in Minneapolis by ICE and Border Patrol.

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Nevertheless, the polls remain stable as the President’s approvals start to take a tumble in some of the most Republican-friendly polls, and as a result the Democrats remain stable at 238 seats this week while the Republicans are far behind at 197.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls, the news, and cover the model results further.

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