The GOP Is Starting to Look Dangerously Vulnerable
Democrats are now averaging 238 House seats as the GOP continues to lose ground
Welcome to the Polling USA model for August 16, 2026!
Yet another week has gone by where Democrats have slowly increased their lead across the board, so let’s take a look at the numbers this week.
In the House, the current averages have the Democrats up another three seats to 238, while Republicans are down three to 197 seats. That puts Democrats between 218 and 253 seats, while Republicans are between 182 and 217, putting Republicans just narrowly outside of the majority mark.
Among strictly tilt seats, Democrats are between 219 and 244, while Republicans are between 181 and 202.
In the Senate, the situation remains the same this week. The Democrats currently sit at 52 seats, while Republicans are at 48 seats, with the Democratic likely average between 50 and 54 seats, while Republicans are between 46 and 50 seats.
Lastly, the governors’ races! The situation remains the same on average this week, with Democrats at 26 seats and Republicans at 24. There was a slight tick up for Republicans, with their likely seat count now being between 20 and 27, while Democrats are between 23 and 30 seats.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!
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