Talarico’s Breakthrough And The Looming Cornyn-Paxton Fight
A look back at primaries and elections in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas
On Tuesday night, voters in North Carolina, Arkansas, and Texas headed to the polls in primary elections that have both shocked the nation and confirmed the inevitable elsewhere. So let’s dig into some of the interesting results from last night!
In perhaps the biggest race of the night, James Talarico, a lone state legislator from the Texas House, came from behind and defeated Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the Texas Democratic Senate primary, doing so in such a manner as to avoid a runoff election.
As of the writing of this article and with 85% of the vote in, Talarico sits at 53.0% statewide, with cities like Austin, San Antonio, El Paso, and many along the Rio Grande Valley helping to launch the state legislator ahead of the Dallas-area Congresswoman, who sits at 45.6%.
There were concerns a third minor candidate, Ahmad Hassan, may cause a runoff should the race have been very tight between Talarico and Crockett, but Hassan’s 1.3% of the vote did not come into play this election cycle.
While we’re waiting for confirmation of Talarico’s victory from major news outlets, the rough math suggests the result may be around 52% for Talarico and 47% for Crockett, should current margins hold. However, it may very well widen to something closer to 54% to 45% if Talarico ends up performing better than the current margins suggest.
Meanwhile, Republicans are in for a gruelling twelve-week runoff primary between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and MAGA warrior and scandal ridden Ken Paxton, after neither reached 50%.
As of the moment, Cornyn secured 42.1% in Texas, doing well against Paxton in the major cities, while Paxton’s rural bent won him 40.8%. The third major candidate, and the one who must be the most cheesed with himself for causing a runoff, is Wesley Hunt, who clocks in at around 13.2% of the vote.
For Talarico, watching Cornyn and Paxton duke it out for the next twelve weeks will give him and his campaign plenty to work with heading into the midterm season. While Donald Trump refused to endorse anyone in the initial primary, he’ll almost certainly throw his hat in the ring and endorse Cornyn or Paxton.
If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on a Paxton endorsement, especially in Trump’s second term. The Republican Party would almost certainly push for Trump to endorse Cornyn, who would be much more likely to defeat Talarico in November, but with how forward Trump has been as of late, it wouldn’t surprise me if he endorses the much riskier option of Paxton.
If Paxton wins, Trump gets another hardline supporter in his party, and if Paxton loses to Talarico, Democrats would be in for one of the greatest midterm nights in a generation.
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Down ballot in Texas there were many races that are noteworthy, but I’ll pick a few that caught my eye!
First off, someone needs to do a wellness check on Dan Crenshaw, who is crashing out of Congress after being defeated by Steve Toth in the TX-02 Republican primary. Toth was endorsed by Trump in the run-up to the election, which functionally sealed Crenshaw’s fate, but perhaps not by as wide a margin as he thought it would be.
As of writing, Toth is ahead with 57.3% of the vote, while Crenshaw is barely below 40% at 39.3%. Something has to be said for a man who wasn’t seen as a strong enough warrior for Trump in the House, despite the fact that Crenshaw has voted with Trump 100% of the time. Loyalty means nothing nowadays.
One newfound politician who will be heading to Congress after winning the Democratic Primary in Jasmine Crockett’s redistricted seat, and one that is deep blue, is Frederick Haynes.
Haynes, a Baptist pastor, won with more than 70% of the vote in the 30th House seat after being endorsed by Crockett, with the next closest candidate at just under 22%. Haynes is quite the character with a powerful way of speaking, which befits someone of his background and standing.
If you want an inkling of where Haynes stands, below is a video of a speech he gave in church barely a day after the October 7th attacks in Israel.
Some other races in Texas include:
Gina Hinojosa easily winning the DEM GOV race with nearly 60% of the vote. She will go up against Greg Abbott in November.
Talarico endorsed Bobby Pulido comfortably defeating Crockett endorsed Ada Cuellar in the Democratic Primary for TX-15.
Incumbent Congressmen, Christian Menefee and Al Green, sit at 46% and 45% in TX-18’s Democratic Primary, after the two were redistricted into the same seat last year.
Colin Allred, former Democratic Senate candidate in Texas, sits at 45.1% in TX-33, while incumbent Julie Johnson is further back at 33.4%.
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Over in North Carolina, Roy Cooper won with functionally no opposition in the Democratic Senate primary, while Michael Whatley secured nearly two thirds of the Republican vote, sending the two men into an election against one another in November.
NC-04 saw an extremely close race between incumbent Valerie Foushee, who sits at 49.18% of the vote, compared to Nida Allam’s 48.22%. Foushee was the target of a major campaign against incumbents who have taken AIPAC money, as TrackAIPAC suggests she’s taken more than $3,300,000 from the organization and similar donors.
If nothing else, this strongly suggests AIPAC endorsed candidates are going to have a very tough time this year in Democratic primaries, as previous races in New Jersey and New York City have already shown.
Lastly, there’s something in the water in Arkansas, where primaries were held, but a special election is making headlines.
The 70th State House seat was previously won by the Republicans in 2024 with 51% to the Democrats’ 49%. The special election saw the Democrat, Alex Holladay, win with 57.4% of the vote while the Republican, Bo Renshaw, dropped to 42.6%, allowing the Democrats to pick up another seat in the state house.
And that’s all for a quick and dirty recap!
The new primaries will be held on March 10th in Mississippi, while Illinois will hold theirs on March 17, which includes an increasingly competitive Senate election on the Democratic side of the aisle.
After that, Ohio and Indiana are up for their primaries at the start of May, so take in the elections while you can.