Supreme Court Blow to Trump Fuels Democratic Momentum

Court rulings, turnout data, and state level polling combine to paint a favorable landscape for Democrats

---

Welcome to the Polling USA House model for February 22, 2026!

With the Supreme Court issuing a major setback to Trump’s economic agenda by declaring the vast majority of his tariffs invoked under IEEPA to be unconstitutional, Republicans are now facing the prospect of defending the continuation of increased taxes on the American people. Trump does not appear to be backing down, issuing a 10% global tariff on all imports, and raising that to 15% the following day.

While Republicans will need to defend cost of living hikes on American families, Democrats have a clear opportunity to push back against Trump’s tariff regime, while positioning themselves as the party that will bring down the cost of living if elected.

---

---

Thus far in the year, Democrats remain remarkably stable at 238 seats on the model, where they have sat for the better part of a month, while the Republicans remain far behind at 197.

Although the topline numbers have not changed, Democrats are expanding their likely seat count even further in the model.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further!

---

Want to support my work and get access to polling deep-dives, full length articles, election models and more?

Sign up for a monthly membership for as little as $5/month and continue reading this article!

I rely on support from readers like you, so thank you to those who choose to support my work <3

---