The Numbers Barely Moved. Maine Changed Everything.
Democrats continue to hold the advantage, while the collapse of Graham Platner's campaign resets the battle for Maine's senate seat
Welcome to the Polling USA model for July 12, 2026!
Well, it’s been a helluva week in Maine politics, but I’ll get to that in a moment! For now, Gallup’s latest polling finds Democratic leaners at 49% and Republican leaners at 39%, making the electorate even bluer than in 2018 (D +7-8), and considerably bluer than 2022 when it was D +1 or 2024 when it was R +1.
Regardless, Democratic House seats now stand at 229 while Republican House seats have slipped to 206, widening the gap between the parties slightly this week. Democrats are projected to win between 213 and 242 seats, while Republicans are projected to secure between 193 and 222.
On the Senate side, a return to baseline in the Maine Senate race, along with Texas shifting slightly back toward the Republicans, has once again produced an even split, with both Democrats and Republicans sitting at 50 seats each. Democrats continue to have the higher ceiling, ranging from 48 to 54 seats, while Republicans are projected between 46 and 52 seats.
Finally, the governor model remains unchanged this week, with Democrats holding 28 seats and Republicans holding 22. Democrats are projected to win between 25 and 31 governor's mansions, while Republicans are projected to win between 19 and 25.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!
🇺🇸 Polling USA is independent and reader-supported. Help us stay that way.
📓 Join thousands of readers and help keep Polling USA independent.