Republicans Struggle as Democratic Numbers Rise
When you hold a nearly eight-point gap over your opponents, they start to realize really fast how much they may have screwed up
Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 31, 2026!
With the Democratic averages continuing to rise ahead of this year’s midterms, the Republicans are either going to have to put up, or take a huge hit in November. Along with Trump’s newest deadline with Iran (For the 59th time), the struggling economy, and prices continuing to rise, the Republicans may be running out of time.
On the current averages for the House, the Democrats win about 233 seats, unchanged from last week, while the Republicans win 202 seats, unchanged the same period (This is because of the Louisiana gerrymander). The real point of notice is among the seat results, with the Democrats winning between 219 and 245 seats, while the Republicans are now below the necessary threshold for a majority, sitting between 190 and 216.
The Senate races are a little closer with the newest averages kicking in. In that race, the Senate sits at 51 seats for the Democrats and 49 seats for the Republicans, leaving the Republicans just outside their chances for control of the chamber. Though, unlike the House seats, the Republicans could still easily finish first with their seat range between 46 and 51 seats, while Democrats sit between 49 and 54.
Let’s chat further about some of the recent polls, and a couple of changes to the model!