Republicans Strike Back in Latest Forecast
Summer polling narrows the gap as Republicans make gains, but Democrats still hold key advantages
Welcome to the Polling USA model for July 19, 2026!
Let’s dive right into the House ratings, which see the Democrats lose six seats to land at 223, while the Republicans gain six seats to reach 212. The Democrats' new likely seat range sits between 210 and 241, while Republicans are between 194 and 225.
On the Senate front, Republicans are stuck alongside the Democrats. Republicans now sit at 50 seats, while Democrats are also at 50, with the Republican likely seat range between 48 and 52, while Democrats are also between 48 and 52 seats.
The Governor's races have tightened, thanks to a slight change to the model. Democrats remain ahead with 26 governorships, while Republicans sit at 24. The new likely seat range for Democrats is between 23 and 28 seats, while Republicans now sit between 22 and 27 seats.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!
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