Redistricting Backfires, Democrats Soar

Courts erase GOP gains while Democrats pick up momentum in the polls

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Welcome to the Polling USA House model for November 22, 2025!

Well, it’s been a wild couple of weeks since the last model update!

A Utah judge rejected a congressional map proposed by the state legislature and approved one that creates a new Democratic seat (one Harris won by more than 20 points) in the state. That judge is, unsurprisingly, facing threats of violence according to an Axios article.

Likewise, a Texas judge panel rejected the 2025 redistricting conducted by the state and is forcing them to return to the 2021 maps, which not only means California cancelled out Texas’ gerrymander, but now they have a multi-seat advantage on top of that. That is, if SCOTUS decides to side with the judicial panel, because while the panel forced Texas back to the 2021 maps, they were given a stay until a decision is reached by SCOTUS, meaning the 2025 maps are back once again.

Not only that, but Democrats have had a number of favorable polls out that have them well ahead of their Republican opponents on the generic ballot, including Marist’s D+14 poll.

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Slap that all together, and the latest model saw the Democrats jump from 231 seats to 235, while the Republicans fell from 204 to 200, all since November 8th.

Let’s chat some more about these changes, the model, and check in on other polls making headlines lately!

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