One Side of the Polling Is Almost Certainly Wrong
The generic ballot remains close, but battleground polls are painting a far more Democratic picture
Welcome to the Polling USA model for July 5, 2026!
As we head into the dog days of summer, we're seeing a flood of new polling from across the country, and some of the results are certainly turning heads!
In the House, Democrats have gained one seat in the model, bringing them to 228 seats, while Republicans are down to 207. The likely range for Democrats remains between 212 and 242 seats, while Republicans are projected to finish between 193 and 223 seats.
Meanwhile, the Senate race remains highly competitive as we move deeper into the summer. Democrats are now projected to hold 52 seats, up one from the previous update, while Republicans sit at 48. The likely range for Democrats is between 48 and 54 seats, while Republicans fall between 46 and 52.
Lastly, thanks in part to some of the wild polling we've seen recently (which I'll get into below), Democratic prospects in the gubernatorial races have continued to improve. The current projection still has Democrats winning 28 governorships and Republicans 22, but the Democrats' upper range increased by two seats while the Republicans' maximum fell by two.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!
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