New Polling Paints a Bleak Picture for Trump

Senate races remain competitive, but the broader national environment continues to favour Democrats

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 24, 2026!

This week has been a relatively quiet week (Or as quiet as you can manage) on the Trump front, so instead we’ll dive straight into the projections and the rest of the polls this week!

Up first is the House, which has seen very little change in the averages, although the safe seats for each are only growing as time goes on. The averages sit at 233 for the Democrats and 202 for the Republicans, which remains unchanged since last week.

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Where the seats continue to increase is along those safe seats for each party. Since April 19, the Democrats have seen their seat count slowly rise from 242 to 256, while the Republicans have slowly dropped from 193 to 179.

The reason for this is simply that a bunch of safe Republican seats have been turned into likely seats in the redistricting, and as such has led to many fewer seats being on the board. Democrats are naturally picking up a few of those closer seats, though they’re still unlikely to win such seats to begin with.

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Over to the Senate side, and things are remaining stable this time around. The Democrats remain at 52 seats on average, while the Republicans are below 48 seats. Relatively small leads in Alaska and Ohio keep those numbers nice and close, but have the Democrats ahead nonetheless.

Let’s chat more about the recent changes and the polls!

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