New Poll Signals Serious Trouble for Susan Collins
Troy Jackson leads the incumbent senator, while Collins' ratings trail where they stood at this point in 2020
New polling released by Hart Research, on behalf of the Senate Majority PAC, has Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins in the race for Maine’s Senate seat.
The initial ballot has Jackson at 49%, compared to Collins’ 45%, putting the Democratic candidate four points ahead of the incumbent Republican senator. For context, at this point in 2020, Susan Collins was tied with then Democratic candidate Sarah Gideon.
There was also a post negative ballot where Jackson received 52% of the vote to Collins' 44%, with 4% remaining undecided. While the poll did not specify which negative messages were presented for each candidate, it found that six of the messages tested against Collins raised major concerns among Mainers, while none of the messages tested against Jackson reached a similar threshold.
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On the favorability front, Jackson narrowly leads Collins, with 47% viewing Jackson favorably compared to 46% who say the same of Collins.
The biggest gap between the two comes on their unfavorable ratings. While 52% of respondents hold an unfavorable view of Collins, only 35% say the same of Jackson, though 18% of respondents remain unsure of their opinion of Jackson. Compare that to 2020, when Collins’ average rating stood at 48% approve and 48% disapprove.
“Susan Collins has spent the last six years making life worse for Mainers, and we are seeing their dissatisfaction show up clearly in the polls” Lauren French, Senate Majority PACs communications director told me, “These numbers show Collins’ weakened standing with voters, compared to Jackson’s relatively strong starting position.”
“What is unsurprising, but notable, is how Collins’ numbers are worse today than at a similar point in the 2020 campaign” French said, “Her votes to cut Medicaid and rural hospital funding, to appoint Supreme Court justices that robbed women of the right to choose, and her continued use of her public office to enrich her own family have created a scenario where Collins is weaker than she’s ever been.”
Meanwhile, Trump remains underwater with most Maine residents. His approval rating sits at 37%, while his disapproval rating stands at 61%, leaving the president with a net approval of negative 24% in a state he desperately wants to hold onto.
Compare that to the 2020 election in Maine, when Donald Trump was sitting at a net approval of negative 18%, and there is a real possibility that Collins could be weighed down just enough by Trump to lose her seat.
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When Maine residents were asked whether they would prefer a Democratic Senate majority to keep a check on Trump or a Republican majority to help advance Trump’s agenda, the former proved to be far more popular.
Among Maine residents, 54% say they would prefer a Democratic majority in the Senate, compared to 36% who would prefer a Republican majority. Another 10% say they are unsure which outcome they would prefer.
All in all, the Senate race in Maine continues to be a close contest. As of today, the current Polling USA Senate model has Jackson at 49.2%, while Collins trails at 46.2%, suggesting the race currently leans Democratic.
While Susan Collins has outperformed polling in previous campaigns, there is a lot working against her this time around. National polling has Trump’s approval on the economy, inflation, and job creation at new lows, and those numbers are even worse in blue states like Maine. That could create a major headwind for Collins as the campaign moves forward.
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