New Poll Finds AOC Ahead of Newsom
Gas prices, a military draft, and whether supporting Israel is the same as being pro-Nazi all make headlines
In the latest round of polling from Overton Insights, we’re getting results on gas prices, a potential military draft, whether Americans consider being pro-Israel the same as being pro-Nazi, and finally some primary polling.
First off, Americans were asked whether gas prices have impacted their regular spending habits. Overall, 47% said they have significantly impacted their spending, with another 19% saying they have moderately impacted it, while only 31% said gas prices are affecting their spending only a little or not at all.
Respondents were then asked whether rising gas prices make them more likely, less likely, or make no difference in their support for the Republican Party.
Overall, Americans say they are 12% more likely to support the Republican Party, while an overwhelming majority (57%) say they are more likely to oppose the Republican Party, with 31% saying it makes no difference.
Among Republicans, 77% either say it makes no difference or that they would support Republicans more, while 23% say it makes them less likely to support them. Among independents, the numbers are even worse for Republicans, with 36% saying it makes no difference while a much larger share (64%) say it makes them less likely to support the party.
The survey then moved on to ask about Donald Trump and whether him implementing a military draft would make Americans support or oppose the idea.
Overall, only 25% of Americans say they would support the proposal, with 43% of Republicans, 16% of Independents, and 10% of Democrats agreeing with the idea. Meanwhile, 66% of Americans oppose it, including 86% of Democrats, 80% of Independents, and even 41% of Republicans.
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Perhaps the most important question on this list was whether being pro-Israel or pro-Nazi carries a bigger stigma, and the results are somewhat surprising.
Overall, 34% of Americans say being publicly pro-Nazi carries a larger social stigma, while 16% say being pro-Israel carries the bigger stigma. However, an even 25% of Americans say that being pro-Israel and being pro-Nazi carry the same level of stigma. Another 14% say neither carries much stigma, while 11% are unsure.
Among Republicans, 31% say that being pro-Israel carries a bigger stigma, while 19% say being pro-Nazi does, and another 20% of their own base believe the two are viewed equally. Among Independents, the share who say the two are the same remains unchanged, though only 11% say being pro-Israel carries a bigger stigma compared to 37% who say being pro-Nazi does.
Finally, among Democrats, the share who say the two are viewed equally sits at 32%, while the share who say being pro-Nazi carries the bigger stigma rises to 47%. Just 4% say being pro-Israel carries the bigger stigma.
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Let’s move onto the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries, because there are definitely some interesting numbers here.
On the Republican side, they found that 39% would vote for Vance, though Marco Rubio comes in close behind at 32%, leaving little breathing room for the Vice President. Another 9% say they would vote for Ron DeSantis, while 4% each say they would vote for either Josh Hawley or Nikki Haley, with another 2% saying the same for Cotton.
However, in a direct matchup between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, the situation flips completely. The poll found Rubio leading with 42% of the vote, while Vance sits at 36%, with the remaining 22% undecided. However, the Democratic side is even more chaotic.
Among all Democrats, they found that Buttigieg leads the field at 16%, while Newsom and AOC follow at 13% and 12%, respectively. Below them are Sanders and Harris at 9% each, while Shapiro sits at 8%. Booker comes in at 7%, Kelly at 4%, and Beshear at 3%, while another 19% say they want someone else or remain undecided.
What’s even more surprising is the head to head result between AOC and Newsom. The poll found that AOC would defeat Newsom by eight points, with AOC at 43% and Newsom at 35%, while the remaining 22% are undecided.
Finally, regardless of what happens in the primaries, the poll asked who voters would be most likely to support if the election were held between Newsom and Vance.
Overall, 44% said they would vote for Newsom, while another 39% chose Vance instead. The remaining share of the vote was split between those who would not vote (8%) and those who are undecided (9%).
Newsom holds a comfortable lead among Democrats at 80%, while 7% say they would instead vote for Vance. Meanwhile, the share of Republicans who say they would vote for Vance sits at 81%, while 5% say they would vote for Newsom.
However, it is the response among independent voters that is the most surprising, with 56% saying they would vote for Newsom, while only 12% say they would vote for Vance. The remaining 24% say they are undecided, while 8% say they would not vote at all.