New Maps and Tight Margins Define the Week

Redistricting battles and shifting seat ratings keep both parties on edge

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 10, 2026!

This is my first welcome home post since I've come back from having a stroke! You’ll have to bear with me as I struggle through the next few posts.

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First off, the topline today has the Democrats sitting at 230 seats, unchanged from the 230 they held last go around. The Republicans sit at 205 seats, also unchanged over the same period.

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Meanwhile, the Republicans and Democrats have entered into their single closest race yet. The Democrats and Republicans are both tied at 50 seats apiece, as per this week’s piece, leaving the Republicans down one and the Democrats up one.

Let’s chat more about the recent changes!

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