New Governor Forecast Gives Democrats Early Leads
Early governor projections, tighter congressional races, and improving Democratic polling shape this week's outlook
Welcome to the Polling USA model for June 28, 2026!
If you believe the rumours going around, then we're a little less than two weeks away from the United States hitting an oil crisis, as there's been plenty of talk about major oil producers labelling July 9th as the endpoint for the ongoing Iran US war. Whether that day comes and goes without issue, or whether we're in for a walloping, is another question.
Until then, polls have slowly improved for the Democrats heading into this week. In the House, the Democrats are back up three seats to finish at 227, while the Republicans are down to 208, with the Democratic likely average between 212 and 242, while the Republicans are between 193 and 223.
Likewise, the situation in the Senate has gotten a little better, with the Democrats gaining one seat to 51 and the Republicans falling to 49 seats. The Democratic likely seat range is now between 48 and 53, while the Republicans are between 47 and 52.
And now we have a governor model!
Democrats have an advantage going into the governor elections this year, meaning their ceiling is much closer to their likely seat count, while Republicans are much closer to their minimum seat count.
Overall, the Democrats would be expected to win around 28 governorships this year, compared to the Republicans' 22, with the Democratic seat count between 25 and 29, while the Republicans are between 21 and 25.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!