Liberals Win Big In Wisconsin

A key battleground breaks hard, with a political environment friendly to Democrats not far behind

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for April 12, 2026!

This week we saw a ceasefire in the war with Iran that is barely functional as it stands, inflation rise to its worst point in almost two years thanks to the oil crisis, and Melania Trump seemingly blind siding her husband by making an impromptu statement about how she has never been involved with Epstein.

It has been another eventful week in American politics, although the averages seem relatively calm in comparison.

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The Democrats remain stable at 236 seats on average this week in the House model, while the Republicans sit at 199 seats. In the likely seat ranges, the Democrats would be expected to win between 220 and 245 seats, while the Republicans are between 190 and 215 seats.

The Senate side of things also remains quiet, with the Republicans holding the lead at 51 seats on average while the Democrats sit at 49 seats. Likewise, the likely seat ranges have the Republicans between 48 and 54 seats, while the Democrats are between 46 and 52 seats.

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Given how many races we still have to wait on until the primaries are complete, do not expect the Senate model to swing around quite as much as the House model may in the coming months.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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