Is This Race Already Over?
New polling shows Mamdani leading every candidate by double digits, leaving Cuomo and Adams scrambling for relevance
While Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams bicker in the background about being the main candidate to run against the Democratic nominee, newly released polling from Zenith Polls & Public Progress suggests Mamdani is the clear favorite ahead of November’s general election in New York City.
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The poll asked a variety of possible election scenarios, but no matter which scenario was put up, Mamdani wins on each ballot with at least 50 percent of the vote.
For example, on the full ballot with all candidates involved, Mamdani wins with 50 percent of the vote while Andrew Cuomo, his closest opponent, would take home about 22 percent. Adams is far behind on every ballot, even being beaten out by Republican Curtis Sliwa on the ballot without Cuomo in the race.
Even in the head-to-head matchups, Cuomo and Adams fall far behind Mamdani, with 40 percent and 32 percent, respectively.
Mamdani is the favorite going into November’s elections, barring some truly wild developments between now and then that would put him at a disadvantage.
Even when you look at the potential voter pools for each candidate, Mamdani’s advantage is clear, as 58 percent of respondents say they would consider voting for him, while only 32 percent say they would not.
Compare that to Cuomo, who finds 37 percent would consider voting for him, but 60 percent say they would not. The only candidate that fares worse on the no-consideration front is Adams, with 68 percent of respondents saying they would not consider voting for him.
Once again, Mamdani leads his mayoral rivals on the personal favorability front, with 50 percent of respondents in the NYC poll saying they view him favorably. That is double what Cuomo has, and nearly three times higher than Eric Adams’ favorables, while having much lower unfavorables than either of them.
Perhaps surprisingly, Mamdani has a marginally higher favorable rating than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who sits just one point lower at 49 percent. By far, Mamdani is the most favorable politician among the big names, outstripping Governor Hochul, Senators Schumer and Gillibrand, and former mayor Bloomberg
So where does that leave the current polling average at the end of July for the mayoral race?
Suffice it to say, Mamdani still holds the lead in the averages, although not as large of a lead as the Zenith poll suggests he has on its own. Mamdani sits at 37 percent in the averages, with Cuomo and Sliwa at 28 percent and 14 percent, respectively. Eric Adams comes last among the big four names, at 12 percent.
If you remove the internal polls (one from Adams and another from Cuomo), the averages do not change too much, though Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo rises by one point while Sliwa ticks up slightly.
If you only account for polls from the month of July, the averages are closer to 38 percent for Mamdani, 23 percent for Cuomo, 16 percent for Sliwa, and 11 percent for Adams. That would increase Mamdani’s lead to 15 points over Cuomo, suggesting a pretty comfortable victory in the crowded field.