Hamilton Is Closing the Gap in Deep Red Kansas
Marshall’s weak approval numbers could give Democrats an opening in an otherwise deep red state
New polling out of Kansas on behalf of the Senate Majority PAC is showing Adam Hamilton and Roger Marshall in a statistically tied race heading into November’s election.
In PPP’s poll, Roger Marshall, the Republican incumbent, holds 46% of the vote in an initial head to head, while Adam Hamilton picks up another 45%. Another 9% say they’re unsure who they would support if an election for Senate were held today.
Interestingly, when voters were given information about Hamilton’s biography, the results were slightly more likely to move the needle. When asked, 34% said they’d be more likely to vote for Hamilton, while 15% said they’d be less likely, with another 46% saying that his biography made no difference.
With that information, 45% still say they’d vote for Hamilton, while 44% say they’d vote for Marshall instead, pushing Hamilton into the lead. However, with 11% of voters still unsure, there’s a lot of ground to make up.
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A poll from last month, conducted by GQR on behalf of a Democratic commissioner, also found a not insignificant difference between the two candidates, with Marshall coming in at 47% and Hamilton at 43%. A little less close than PPP’s poll, but nonetheless still a competitive environment.
When voters were asked whether they approve or disapprove of both Senate candidates, Marshall finds himself in a bit of hot water. His approval rating sits at -9%, with 38% approving of him and 47% disapproving of him, while another 15% were unsure. That may go some way toward explaining why he didn’t exactly run away with his primary earlier this year, with 80% support, but 20% going to someone with little to no name recognition.
Hamilton, on the other hand, still has a lot of work to do with Kansas voters ahead of November. Among all voters, 29% had a favorable view of him, while 23% had an unfavorable view, giving him a net positive of +6%. However, nearly half of voters said they were unsure how they felt about him, giving no answer one way or the other.
Piggybacking off Roger Marshall’s disapproval seems to be Donald Trump himself. In a state where he won by 16 points over Kamala Harris, he’s at a break even point among voters, with 48% saying they approve of him and 48% saying they disapprove of him.
Once again, Trump’s approval on the economy and inflation has been driving him straight through the floorboards among Americans, and Kansas seems to be no different.
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So where does that put the current Senate projections for Kansas? Well, Hamilton still has a lot of work ahead of him, and the race is still quite unfavorable toward him. However, it’s definitely gotten a little better since the candidates were confirmed in their respective primaries.
Currently, Marshall sits at 51% of the vote in the current model, while Hamilton is still a ways behind at 43.5% of the vote. Given that the state previously voted 53.2% for Marshall and 41.8% for his Democratic opponent at the time, it’s a modicum of improvement.
November is still a few months away, and races across the country are only set to heat up as Election Day comes into view. Could Kansas flip blue? Well, at the moment, it’s unlikely, but a tied race in an incredibly blue year, from the looks of it, at least gives Democrats some small amount of hope for yet another flip.
Alas, we’ll have to wait and see!
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