Global Crisis, Domestic Consequences
Americans remain skeptical of foreign conflicts overseas while the Democrats maintain a lead in the House
Welcome to the Polling USA House model for March 1, 2026!
Well, the United States and Israel have started their bombing campaign of Iran, and as of the writing of this article in the early evening of February 28, Trump has confirmed that the Iranian Ayatollah has been killed in the opening salvo of the war, while also confirming that US airstrikes will continue in the coming weeks.
Given the build up in the Middle East, and the current exchange of fire less than twenty-four hours after the initial airstrikes occurred, it’s safe to say we’re looking down the barrel of a prolonged conflict that will last a couple of weeks at least.
We’ll touch on some of the initial polling preceding and succeeding the opening salvos of this conflict, but for now, this week’s House model has the Democrats dipping two seats to 236, while the Republicans tick up to 199. This is the first movement at the topline in a month, despite the Democrats still holding a comfortable lead in the polls.
Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.