Final Polls Show Democrats Holding the Line
Plus new polling from Alaska shows Peltola holding a wide lead in the governor race
With elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City right around the corner, it’s time to take one final look at where the situation stands in each race.
But first, let’s take a quick look at some new Alaska polling put out by Data For Progress, which found Mary Peltola dominating the Alaska governor race against potential Republican candidates.
In the final round of the governor election poll run by Data For Progress, they found Peltola winning 67% of the vote, while Republican Dave Bronson finished with 33%.
The survey did a few hypothetical scenarios as to how the “unsure” and “would not vote” options are redistributed from each Republican candidate that fell off the ballot. While Peltola wins by 34 points on the original ballot, that lead slowly shrinks with each subsequent redistribution toward Bronson.
First, it shrinks to Peltola +32, then to Peltola +26 when the survey redistributes all Republican respondents whose votes were exhausted after eliminating “unsures” to Bronson. In the final ballot, which includes the previous stipulations alongside distributing all votes for any Republican candidate who is eliminated to Bronson instead of exhausting the vote, Peltola’s lead falls to +4, which is still a victory for the Democrat.
Regardless, Peltola’s chances at the governorship seem to be much better than her chances against Dan Sullivan in the Senate race, where she holds a one-point lead over the incumbent Republican. Peltola running for Governor or Senator are her most reasonable options, unless she decides to return to the House, but that seems like a relative step down politically from where she could go.
Democrat Matt Schultz falls far behind Nick Begich in the House race, with the latter winning 48% of the vote in this poll and the former picking up 37%.
Now, let’s take a look at the final polling averages in Tuesday’s races!
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In Virginia, Spanberger remains comfortably ahead in the race for governor, with a polling average of polls conducted since mid-October having her at 53% of the vote. Her Republican opponent, Earle-Sears, is ten points behind at 43%.
Compared to the previous polling average of polls conducted between September 15 and October 14, Spanberger saw her share in the polling averages rise by two points, while Sears remained flat at 43%.
There’s no doubt that Spanberger is the favorite to win the governor’s race, but where the attorney general race will end up is the bigger question.
That race has remained much more competitive, with Jones at 45% and his Republican opponent, Miyares, at 47%. Compared to the previous polling average last month, Jones remained flat at 45%, while Miyares improved his averages by a point. Yet, eight percent of voters are either voting for other candidates or, more likely, are undecided in that race.
While Miyares remains the favorite to win the AG race, it’s still a coin flip as far as polling averages go. We could see a situation where Spanberger wins by so much in the governor’s race that she pulls Jones over the line, or he may end up falling short against Miyares come Tuesday night.
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Another race that remains on the closer end of things is New Jersey, where Sherrill is looking to continue Democratic governance in the state. Her latest polling average sits at 50%, while her Republican opponent, Ciattarelli, is five points behind at 45%.
Both candidates saw their share of the vote rise by two points compared to the September–October polling average, with the share of other or undecided voters shrinking by almost half.
New Jersey is, without a doubt, going to be the closest major race of the three big ones on Tuesday night, though the Democrats are likely to have enough breathing room to win in the state. Unless, of course, Ciattarelli is able to eke out a win, given a polling miss.
One place where a polling miss would still result in the front-runner winning is New York City. On the latest polling average, Mamdani sits at 45%, while Cuomo and Sliwa are further behind at 30% and 17%, respectively. Another 9% of New Yorkers remain undecided or are voting for some other candidate.
Mamdani’s results remained mostly flat between the two polling averages, only dropping by about 0.4%. Meanwhile, Cuomo and Sliwa both saw their share in the polling averages rise by two points, likely helped out by Eric Adams no longer being included in recent polling given he dropped out of the race.
Special mention goes out to AtlasIntel’s final poll in this race, which found Mamdani only seven points ahead of Cuomo, but also having Cuomo winning a two-way race by eight points. They’re the only pollster to have such a finding in a head-to-head situation with Mamdani and Cuomo since August, but it should also be noted that their NYC sample was about 56% Democratic, when in reality the city is closer to 66–67% Democratic.
(And that’s ignoring the fact that the same poll found Curtis Sliwa at +24% net favorable, which was even better than Obama’s result of +15%! Guess we’ll have to see whether one of the more accurate presidential race pollsters can get it right in an off-year mayoral election, or whether it’s going to be a Selzer moment for them.)