Democratic Advantage Narrows As Polling Tightens
Falling gas prices may be contributing to a softer Democratic polling advantage, yet Trump's approval on inflation remains abysmal
Welcome to the Polling USA model for June 14, 2026!
This week marked the 60th or so time that Donald Trump has declared an end to the Iran War, while Graham Platner cruised to victory with nearly 72% of the vote in Maine’s Democratic Senate election.
So what’s happening with Democrats all of a sudden?!
This week saw the generic ballot polling average fall to a recent low of 5.8% in favour of the Democrats. That decline has pushed their odds slightly lower, but they are not entering panic territory just yet.
In the House, Democrats would still be expected to win about 227 seats, unchanged from last week, while Republicans remain at 208 seats. However, the Democrats’ likely seat range has narrowed to 212-239, while the Republicans have expanded theirs to 196-223.
Over on the Senate side of things, the situation has become a complete deadlock. Democrats and Republicans would both be expected to win about 50 seats each, while their likely seat ranges are identical at 48-52.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!