Democrats Now Lead In 52 Senate Seats

Recent surveys suggest Republicans are increasingly on the defensive across several critical Senate races

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 17, 2026!

After a week of polls, we’re starting to see the split between the Republicans and Democrats go in separate directions. But first, before we get to that, let’s take a look at this week’s model update.

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This week saw the Democrats rise three seats to 233, while the Republicans subsequently saw their numbers drop to 202. What’s definitely gotten larger over time is the share of safe and non-safe seats, which have seen their respective margins increase.

Where the situation is more interesting is in the senate race, which is off to the races as of late. This week we’re seeing the model average tick up for the Democrats to 52 seats, up two from last week, while the share of Republican seats is officially below the result at 48.

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While we’re going to get into the senate seats in the model, it’s important to realize that this is what happens when you have a seven point or higher model average.

Let’s chat more about the recent changes!

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