Democrats Expand Lead in Latest House Forecast

Trump’s weak numbers on inflation and the economy weigh heavily on Republican prospects

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Welcome to the Polling USA House model for August 17, 2025!

The polling averages for the Democrats have slowly improved over the last few weeks, while their standing in the House model has strengthened.

This week, the Democrats remain at an average of 233 seats in the model, while the Republicans fall well behind at 202, giving the Democrats plenty of breathing room a little over one year out from the midterms.

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While the topline numbers remain stable, there is movement beneath the surface, and other polling around Trump shows his standing with the American people is not changing for the better.

Now, let’s move on to the details for our paying subscribers!

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