Welcome to the Polling USA model for August 23, 2026!
The race for who will control each level of government continues, with the countdown to the midterm elections now just ten weeks away. There’s been a slight downtick for the Democrats after last week’s high of D +7.7, but they still very much hold the advantage.
In the House, Democrats ticked down to 234 seats this week, down four compared to the previous week, while Republicans are back up to 201 seats. That now puts the likely seat count for Democrats between 216 and 252, while Republicans sit between 183 and 219.
When it comes specifically to the tilt seats, Democrats are between 216 and 244, while Republicans are between 183 and 206 seats.
Jumping over to the Senate side of things, Democrats, specifically Independent candidate Dan Osborn, now sit at 53 seats total, while Republicans tick down to 47 seats. Once again, the likely seat ranges remain unchanged this week, with Democrats between 50 and 54 seats, and Republicans between 46 and 50 seats.
Finally, on the Governor’s side of things, Democrats and Republicans remain steady this week, with Democrats at 26 seats and Republicans at 24 seats. The likely seat range for Democrats is between 23 and 30, while Republicans are between 20 and 27.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!
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