Cornyn Is Running Out Of Runway In Texas
New polling finds Ken Paxton leading the incumbent Texas Senator, with Trump's potential endorsement failing to move the needle
Newly released polling from the Senate Majority PAC (D), conducted by GQR, finds the Texas Republican senate primary heating up ahead of the May 26th runoff election to see who will face off against Democratic candidate, James Talarico.
On the initial ballot, Ken Paxton holds a lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with Paxton sitting at 47% of the primary vote compared to 42% for Cornyn. This would mark the sixth poll out of seven released since the initial primaries that find Paxton ahead of Cornyn.
The situation may not be salvageable for Cornyn, even if he can manage to earn the coveted Trump endorsement ahead of the primaries. The poll re-asked the ballot question in a scenario where Trump endorses Cornyn for the seat, and one where Trump stays out of the race and doesn’t endorse either candidate.
In the event Trump stays out of the race, Paxton would earn 48% of the primary vote compared to 42% for Cornyn, with 10% remaining undecided. However, with Trump’s endorsement, Cornyn would inch up one point to 43%, while Paxton would tick down one point to 47%, still leaving Paxton in the lead.
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GQR also conducted a ballot question which followed a series of negative messages about Cornyn and Paxton, and positive ones about Paxton. Unfortunately, we don’t have the exact wording of those questions, though they seemed to center around issues on gun control, the border, and a variety of positions related to Trump and voting for Biden nominees in Cornyn’s case.
Nevertheless, post-negatives for Paxton find Cornyn jumping ahead, with himself at 48% and Paxton at 41%, while post-positives for Paxton find the two men tied at 43% a piece. The biggest concern about Paxton running against Talarico is that the man carries a lot of controversial baggage that has Republicans concerned about his electability, even in deep red Texas.
Post-negatives for Cornyn found Paxton holding roughly the same lead over the incumbent senator as the initial ballot finds at 47% to 41%.
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Ultimately, the race is going to come down to who Republicans in Texas like more between the two senate candidates, and unfortunately for Cornyn, it would seem Paxton has the edge in that regard.
Among Texas Republicans, 56% say they have a favorable view of Ken Paxton, while 43% say they have an unfavorable one. Compare that to the 51% who have an unfavorable view of Cornyn, and 47% who have a favorable one, and it becomes clear why Cornyn is dragging behind his senate challenger.
Given Paxton is seen as much more pro-MAGA than Cornyn is, it may not be that surprising that Cornyn is struggling to win his seat back. The poll found 85% of likely primary voters consider themselves to be MAGA, compared to 69% who say they’re strong republicans.
Add in the fact that the poll finds 38% of Paxton’s supporters consider themselves to be ‘Strong Paxton’ voters, compared to 30% of Cornyn’s supporters who say they’re ‘Strong Cornyn’ voters, and there may even be a slight enthusiasm gap against the incumbent senator.
In the end, unless the dynamics of the race shift significantly between now and election day, Cornyn appears to be facing an uphill battle. With Paxton maintaining consistent leads, stronger favorability among primary voters, and a base that seems more energized, Republican leadership may end up sweating a lot more over Texas come November.