A Presidency Defined by Delay, Decline, and Denial

Promises of a quick end collide with political reality as support slips and skepticism rises

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for March 29, 2026!

We spent a few days there wondering what the cryptic, frankly ARG-like videos and images the Trump administration was putting out were, but in the end it ended up just being a White House app. I’m leaving it at that, because frankly, what a stupid idea.

On the news front, the Iran war continues unabated, with timelines shifting once again. This past week we heard that the war will be over in two to four weeks, while also being told that it’ll be over by the China summit, which is slated for about seven weeks from now.

The markets have been in a state of uncertainty, to put it mildly, with Trump’s weekly promises of the war ending soon helping to soothe markets on a Monday, only for them to tank again on a Friday.

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The other thing that’s been relatively calm and stable for the last little while is the seat projections on the House model. The Democrats ticked up to 236 on the House averages, while the Republicans ticked down to 199, keeping the two parties in the same situation they’ve been in since the start of February.

This is also the soft launch of the Senate projections, which should be taken with a grain of salt, as all Senate seat projections will be impacted by polling averages in their respective states. For now, those states that don’t have confirmed candidates rely on previous election results much more heavily than those that do.

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Nevertheless, the Senate situation is not much different from the situation in the House, although it’s the Republicans that hold the lead at 51 seats on average, compared to 49 seats for the Democrats. Democrats will need to win 51 seats in the Senate if they want to block out Vance’s tie-breaking vote (and maybe 52 if they don’t want to rely on Fetterman all the time).

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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