A Four Point Lead Masks a Tightening Seat Range
Seat ranges contract as GOP gains offset a still solid Democratic polling lead
Welcome to the Polling USA House model for January 18, 2026!
As the fallout from the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis continues, and as ICE faces a further decline in their public image with the American people, the polls are shifting once again.
This week saw the Democrats dip five seats to finish at 233 seats, while the Republicans rose five seats to end at 202. That still leaves the Democrats well above the 218 mark, but the race is back in contention, as the likely seat range will show.
Let’s chat about some of the recent polls, the news, and cover the model results further!