Welcome to the Polling USA model for June 7, 2026!

This week brought a boost for the Republican Party in the polls, and while it moved them closer to the majority threshold, the Democrats continue to maintain the upper hand.

Today, the Democrats stand at 227 seats, down six from their previous total of 233, while the Republicans have gained six seats to reach 208. Current polling margins place the Democrats between 212 and 242 seats, while Republicans range between 193 and 223 seats. It is a stronger position for the GOP, though their lower bound remains far from ideal.

On the Senate side, however, the picture has shifted considerably. Democrats and Republicans are now tied at 50 seats apiece, with Democrats losing one seat and Republicans gaining one. At present, both parties are projected to finish between 49 and 51 seats.

Let’s chat further about some of the recent polls and model results!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 31, 2026!

With the Democratic averages continuing to rise ahead of this year’s midterms, the Republicans are either going to have to put up, or take a huge hit in November. Along with Trump’s newest deadline with Iran (For the 59th time), the struggling economy, and prices continuing to rise, the Republicans may be running out of time.

On the current averages for the House, the Democrats win about 233 seats, unchanged from last week, while the Republicans win 202 seats, unchanged the same period (This is because of the Louisiana gerrymander). The real point of notice is among the seat results, with the Democrats winning between 219 and 245 seats, while the Republicans are now below the necessary threshold for a majority, sitting between 190 and 216.

The Senate races are a little closer with the newest averages kicking in. In that race, the Senate sits at 51 seats for the Democrats and 49 seats for the Republicans, leaving the Republicans just outside their chances for control of the chamber. Though, unlike the House seats, the Republicans could still easily finish first with their seat range between 46 and 51 seats, while Democrats sit between 49 and 54.

Let’s chat further about some of the recent polls, and a couple of changes to the model!

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In the latest round of polling from Overton Insights, we’re getting results on gas prices, a potential military draft, whether Americans consider being pro-Israel the same as being pro-Nazi, and finally some primary polling.

First off, Americans were asked whether gas prices have impacted their regular spending habits. Overall, 47% said they have significantly impacted their spending, with another 19% saying they have moderately impacted it, while only 31% said gas prices are affecting their spending only a little or not at all.

Respondents were then asked whether rising gas prices make them more likely, less likely, or make no difference in their support for the Republican Party.

Overall, Americans say they are 12% more likely to support the Republican Party, while an overwhelming majority (57%) say they are more likely to oppose the Republican Party, with 31% saying it makes no difference.

Among Republicans, 77% either say it makes no difference or that they would support Republicans more, while 23% say it makes them less likely to support them. Among independents, the numbers are even worse for Republicans, with 36% saying it makes no difference while a much larger share (64%) say it makes them less likely to support the party.

The survey then moved on to ask about Donald Trump and whether him implementing a military draft would make Americans support or oppose the idea.

Overall, only 25% of Americans say they would support the proposal, with 43% of Republicans, 16% of Independents, and 10% of Democrats agreeing with the idea. Meanwhile, 66% of Americans oppose it, including 86% of Democrats, 80% of Independents, and even 41% of Republicans.

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Perhaps the most important question on this list was whether being pro-Israel or pro-Nazi carries a bigger stigma, and the results are somewhat surprising.

Overall, 34% of Americans say being publicly pro-Nazi carries a larger social stigma, while 16% say being pro-Israel carries the bigger stigma. However, an even 25% of Americans say that being pro-Israel and being pro-Nazi carry the same level of stigma. Another 14% say neither carries much stigma, while 11% are unsure.

Among Republicans, 31% say that being pro-Israel carries a bigger stigma, while 19% say being pro-Nazi does, and another 20% of their own base believe the two are viewed equally. Among Independents, the share who say the two are the same remains unchanged, though only 11% say being pro-Israel carries a bigger stigma compared to 37% who say being pro-Nazi does.

Finally, among Democrats, the share who say the two are viewed equally sits at 32%, while the share who say being pro-Nazi carries the bigger stigma rises to 47%. Just 4% say being pro-Israel carries the bigger stigma.

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Let’s move onto the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries, because there are definitely some interesting numbers here.

On the Republican side, they found that 39% would vote for Vance, though Marco Rubio comes in close behind at 32%, leaving little breathing room for the Vice President. Another 9% say they would vote for Ron DeSantis, while 4% each say they would vote for either Josh Hawley or Nikki Haley, with another 2% saying the same for Cotton.

However, in a direct matchup between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, the situation flips completely. The poll found Rubio leading with 42% of the vote, while Vance sits at 36%, with the remaining 22% undecided. However, the Democratic side is even more chaotic.

Among all Democrats, they found that Buttigieg leads the field at 16%, while Newsom and AOC follow at 13% and 12%, respectively. Below them are Sanders and Harris at 9% each, while Shapiro sits at 8%. Booker comes in at 7%, Kelly at 4%, and Beshear at 3%, while another 19% say they want someone else or remain undecided.

What’s even more surprising is the head to head result between AOC and Newsom. The poll found that AOC would defeat Newsom by eight points, with AOC at 43% and Newsom at 35%, while the remaining 22% are undecided.

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Finally, regardless of what happens in the primaries, the poll asked who voters would be most likely to support if the election were held between Newsom and Vance.

Overall, 44% said they would vote for Newsom, while another 39% chose Vance instead. The remaining share of the vote was split between those who would not vote (8%) and those who are undecided (9%).

Newsom holds a comfortable lead among Democrats at 80%, while 7% say they would instead vote for Vance. Meanwhile, the share of Republicans who say they would vote for Vance sits at 81%, while 5% say they would vote for Newsom.

However, it is the response among independent voters that is the most surprising, with 56% saying they would vote for Newsom, while only 12% say they would vote for Vance. The remaining 24% say they are undecided, while 8% say they would not vote at all.

New polling from is taking a look at the opinions of several notable individuals in American political life.

Right off the bat, the single most disliked individual in American politics is Erika Kirk, whose favorability sits at 28%, while her unfavorability is much higher at 54%. Another 12% have no opinion of her, while 6% have never heard of her.

The next two on the list are Ben Shapiro and Candace Owens, both of whom share 17% favorability ratings. However, Shapiro’s unfavorables sit at 44%, while Owens sits at 40%. Nearly the same share of respondents said they are unfamiliar with them, at 28% for Shapiro and 29% for Owens, while the rest said they had never heard of them.

The next two are individuals running for office on the Republican side: Spencer Pratt and James Fishback. Pratt is the better known of the two, with 25% viewing him favorably and 29% viewing him unfavorably. Another 31% said they do not have an opinion of him, while 15% have heard of him but still hold no view.

The other is Fishback, where only 10% view him favorably and 23% unfavorably, while a whopping 53% do not have an opinion and 14% have heard of him but hold no view.

Onto the Democratic side of things, and we have Graham Platner and Hasan Piker. Platner posts a result of 19% favorability and 25% unfavorability, with 37% not knowing who he is and 19% not having an opinion of him.

The only person who performed worse than Fishback was Piker, where 10% view him favorably and 19% unfavorably, with 56% not knowing who he is and 15% not having an opinion.

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Among Republicans, Erika Kirk actually performs the best of the group, with 62% viewing her favorably and 21% unfavorably. That is followed by 46% having a favorable view of Spencer Pratt and 13% viewing him unfavorably.

Perhaps what is a little funny is that Owens and Shapiro both sit underwater among Republicans, despite both having their strongest bases there. Shapiro and Owens sit at 24% and 25% favorability respectively, while their unfavorables sit at 28% and 32%, with large shares saying they have heard of them but hold no opinion either way.

Fishback had the lowest net approvals, but once again, 55% of respondents had never heard of him before.

Compare that to Platner and Piker, both of whom have little to no favorability among Republicans as expected, and much higher unfavorables at 46% for Platner and 27% for Piker. While 36% had never heard of Platner, an even larger share of Republicans had never heard of Piker either at 55%.

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Moving onto Democrats, the situation for almost all the Republicans remains quite poor.

Erika Kirk is the single most disliked individual in this poll, with 79% unfavorability, while only 6% say they have a favorable opinion of her. That is followed by Shapiro and Pratt, both sitting at 12% favorability, although 53% say they view Shapiro unfavorably and 44% say the same of Pratt.

For Candace Owens, she is only beaten out by Erika Kirk, with 8% viewing her favorably, while another 55% view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, 20% say they do not know who she is.

Perhaps the most surprising results are those among Democrats. Platner remains ahead with 30% viewing him favorably and only 12% viewing him unfavorably, which might suggest the outcry against Platner is far overblown within his own party. However, 37% say they do not know who he is, while another 21% say they do not have an opinion of him.

Even more surprising is the Piker result. With many claiming that Piker will ruin the Democratic Party if he gets anywhere near it, the numbers appear to suggest the opposite. While Piker has a 19% favorability rating and a 13% unfavorability rating, a whopping 54% of Democrats have no clue who he is, while another 14% say they do not have an opinion of him.

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Finally, we move onto independents, where the situation is not much better for the likes of Kirk and Shapiro either.

Kirk, once again, comes in at 8% favorability and a terrible 65% unfavorability. That is only slightly ahead of Shapiro’s 12% favorability, while his unfavorability remains extremely high at 55%.

The other three Republican figures, Owens, Pratt, and Fishback, come in at 17%, 9%, and 4% favorability respectively. Meanwhile, their unfavorables range between 20% and 29%, with Pratt and Fishback both posting noticeable unfavorables at 43% and 54%.

Which just leaves the two Democratic individuals on the list.

Platner remains ahead with independents at 26% favorability compared to 11% unfavorability, with 35% not knowing who he is and another 28% saying they have no opinion of him.

Piker, on the other hand, remains at 10% favorability and 17% unfavorability, which just goes to show how little he matters in the broader situation. Not only that, but 59% say they have never heard of him, while another 14% say they have heard of him but do not have an opinion.

Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 24, 2026!

This week has been a relatively quiet week (Or as quiet as you can manage) on the Trump front, so instead we’ll dive straight into the projections and the rest of the polls this week!

Up first is the House, which has seen very little change in the averages, although the safe seats for each are only growing as time goes on. The averages sit at 233 for the Democrats and 202 for the Republicans, which remains unchanged since last week.

Where the seats continue to increase is along those safe seats for each party. Since April 19, the Democrats have seen their seat count slowly rise from 242 to 256, while the Republicans have slowly dropped from 193 to 179.

The reason for this is simply that a bunch of safe Republican seats have been turned into likely seats in the redistricting, and as such has led to many fewer seats being on the board. Democrats are naturally picking up a few of those closer seats, though they’re still unlikely to win such seats to begin with.

Over to the Senate side, and things are remaining stable this time around. The Democrats remain at 52 seats on average, while the Republicans are below 48 seats. Relatively small leads in Alaska and Ohio keep those numbers nice and close, but have the Democrats ahead nonetheless.

Let’s chat more about the recent changes and the polls!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 17, 2026!

After a week of polls, we’re starting to see the split between the Republicans and Democrats go in separate directions. But first, before we get to that, let’s take a look at this week’s model update.

This week saw the Democrats rise three seats to 233, while the Republicans subsequently saw their numbers drop to 202. What’s definitely gotten larger over time is the share of safe and non-safe seats, which have seen their respective margins increase.

Where the situation is more interesting is in the senate race, which is off to the races as of late. This week we’re seeing the model average tick up for the Democrats to 52 seats, up two from last week, while the share of Republican seats is officially below the result at 48.

While we’re going to get into the senate seats in the model, it’s important to realize that this is what happens when you have a seven point or higher model average.

Let’s chat more about the recent changes!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 10, 2026!

This is my first welcome home post since I've come back from having a stroke! You’ll have to bear with me as I struggle through the next few posts.

First off, the topline today has the Democrats sitting at 230 seats, unchanged from the 230 they held last go around. The Republicans sit at 205 seats, also unchanged over the same period.

Meanwhile, the Republicans and Democrats have entered into their single closest race yet. The Democrats and Republicans are both tied at 50 seats apiece, as per this week’s piece, leaving the Republicans down one and the Democrats up one.

Let’s chat more about the recent changes!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for April 19, 2026!

With the situation in the Middle East trundling along for the Trump administration, and a flurry of mixed messages from both sides as per usual, the situation on the polling front isn’t dramatically different.

There was a notable shift in the House model, but not because of any polling shift. I’ve adjusted the model regarding a number of the closest seats in Congress, which I’ll explain below the subscriber line.

Nevertheless, the Democrats sit at 230 seats on the current model, with their likely seat count between 209 and 242, which is naturally much closer and more competitive than the pre-model adjustment result.

At the same time, the Republicans sit at 205 seats, with their likely seat count between 193 and 226, suggesting the result for Republicans could keep them in the majority if the polling error broke hard for them.

The Senate side of things remains quiet, with the Republicans at 51 seats, with a range of 48 to 54 seats, and the Democrats at 49 seats, with a range of 46 to 52 seats.

Let’s chat about the model changes and take a look at the brand new interactive Senate and House maps!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for April 12, 2026!

This week we saw a ceasefire in the war with Iran that is barely functional as it stands, inflation rise to its worst point in almost two years thanks to the oil crisis, and Melania Trump seemingly blind siding her husband by making an impromptu statement about how she has never been involved with Epstein.

It has been another eventful week in American politics, although the averages seem relatively calm in comparison.

The Democrats remain stable at 236 seats on average this week in the House model, while the Republicans sit at 199 seats. In the likely seat ranges, the Democrats would be expected to win between 220 and 245 seats, while the Republicans are between 190 and 215 seats.

The Senate side of things also remains quiet, with the Republicans holding the lead at 51 seats on average while the Democrats sit at 49 seats. Likewise, the likely seat ranges have the Republicans between 48 and 54 seats, while the Democrats are between 46 and 52 seats.

Given how many races we still have to wait on until the primaries are complete, do not expect the Senate model to swing around quite as much as the House model may in the coming months.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for April 5, 2026!

With the oil markets threatening to spike further after Trump’s less than reassuring address to the nation Wednesday evening, his polling on the Iran war front isn’t any more cheery. As the war drags on, the situation for Trump becomes more untenable, with pressure mounting on his administration.

More on those numbers in a minute.

The Democrats and Republicans are stable this week, with the Democrats winning 236 seats on the current House model, while the Republicans pick up the other 199. The Democratic likely seat range sits between 220 and 244, while the Republicans would be expected to win anywhere between 191 and 215 seats.

The Senate situation remains stable as well, with the Republicans expected to win 51 seats on the current averages, and the Democrats picking up the other 49. Though, the Democrats’ floor ticked up one seat this week, while the Republicans’ ceiling moved inversely, as Republicans would win between 48 and 54 Senate seats, while the Democrats would be between 46 and 52.

Overall, the Democrats maintain their lead in the House race, while the Senate still favors the Republicans, if not in a coin flip environment at the moment.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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Newly released polling from the Senate Majority PAC (D), conducted by GQR, finds the Texas Republican senate primary heating up ahead of the May 26th runoff election to see who will face off against Democratic candidate, James Talarico.

On the initial ballot, Ken Paxton holds a lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with Paxton sitting at 47% of the primary vote compared to 42% for Cornyn. This would mark the sixth poll out of seven released since the initial primaries that find Paxton ahead of Cornyn.

The situation may not be salvageable for Cornyn, even if he can manage to earn the coveted Trump endorsement ahead of the primaries. The poll re-asked the ballot question in a scenario where Trump endorses Cornyn for the seat, and one where Trump stays out of the race and doesn’t endorse either candidate.

In the event Trump stays out of the race, Paxton would earn 48% of the primary vote compared to 42% for Cornyn, with 10% remaining undecided. However, with Trump’s endorsement, Cornyn would inch up one point to 43%, while Paxton would tick down one point to 47%, still leaving Paxton in the lead.

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GQR also conducted a ballot question which followed a series of negative messages about Cornyn and Paxton, and positive ones about Paxton. Unfortunately, we don’t have the exact wording of those questions, though they seemed to center around issues on gun control, the border, and a variety of positions related to Trump and voting for Biden nominees in Cornyn’s case.

Nevertheless, post-negatives for Paxton find Cornyn jumping ahead, with himself at 48% and Paxton at 41%, while post-positives for Paxton find the two men tied at 43% a piece. The biggest concern about Paxton running against Talarico is that the man carries a lot of controversial baggage that has Republicans concerned about his electability, even in deep red Texas.

Post-negatives for Cornyn found Paxton holding roughly the same lead over the incumbent senator as the initial ballot finds at 47% to 41%.

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Ultimately, the race is going to come down to who Republicans in Texas like more between the two senate candidates, and unfortunately for Cornyn, it would seem Paxton has the edge in that regard.

Among Texas Republicans, 56% say they have a favorable view of Ken Paxton, while 43% say they have an unfavorable one. Compare that to the 51% who have an unfavorable view of Cornyn, and 47% who have a favorable one, and it becomes clear why Cornyn is dragging behind his senate challenger.

Given Paxton is seen as much more pro-MAGA than Cornyn is, it may not be that surprising that Cornyn is struggling to win his seat back. The poll found 85% of likely primary voters consider themselves to be MAGA, compared to 69% who say they’re strong republicans.

Add in the fact that the poll finds 38% of Paxton’s supporters consider themselves to be ‘Strong Paxton’ voters, compared to 30% of Cornyn’s supporters who say they’re ‘Strong Cornyn’ voters, and there may even be a slight enthusiasm gap against the incumbent senator.

In the end, unless the dynamics of the race shift significantly between now and election day, Cornyn appears to be facing an uphill battle. With Paxton maintaining consistent leads, stronger favorability among primary voters, and a base that seems more energized, Republican leadership may end up sweating a lot more over Texas come November.

Welcome to the Polling USA model for March 29, 2026!

We spent a few days there wondering what the cryptic, frankly ARG-like videos and images the Trump administration was putting out were, but in the end it ended up just being a White House app. I’m leaving it at that, because frankly, what a stupid idea.

On the news front, the Iran war continues unabated, with timelines shifting once again. This past week we heard that the war will be over in two to four weeks, while also being told that it’ll be over by the China summit, which is slated for about seven weeks from now.

The markets have been in a state of uncertainty, to put it mildly, with Trump’s weekly promises of the war ending soon helping to soothe markets on a Monday, only for them to tank again on a Friday.

The other thing that’s been relatively calm and stable for the last little while is the seat projections on the House model. The Democrats ticked up to 236 on the House averages, while the Republicans ticked down to 199, keeping the two parties in the same situation they’ve been in since the start of February.

This is also the soft launch of the Senate projections, which should be taken with a grain of salt, as all Senate seat projections will be impacted by polling averages in their respective states. For now, those states that don’t have confirmed candidates rely on previous election results much more heavily than those that do.

Nevertheless, the Senate situation is not much different from the situation in the House, although it’s the Republicans that hold the lead at 51 seats on average, compared to 49 seats for the Democrats. Democrats will need to win 51 seats in the Senate if they want to block out Vance’s tie-breaking vote (and maybe 52 if they don’t want to rely on Fetterman all the time).

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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Welcome to the Polling USA House model for March 22, 2026!

Another week in the books as Trump’s war against Iran continues unabated, while energy prices continue to rise and stockpiles dwindle, the American economy is heading for a downturn all the same.

What will that do for the political situation back home? We’ll have to wait and see how Americans react to the war, rising gas prices, and other unintended consequences of the war in due time, though we do have early inklings thanks to recent reporting.

Nevertheless, the topline result remains much the same this week with the Democrats at 235 seats on the House model, and the Republicans at 200.

You’ll notice the swanky new graph above, which now shows the likely seat range on the model, which currently has the Democrats between 217 and 242 seats, while the Republicans are between 193 and 218.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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As we plunge into the third week of America’s own three-day special military operation, the polls are showing that Americans are not thrilled about this war, and want it ended sooner rather than later.

YouGov found support for the war in Iran to sit at 33% of Americans, with 73% of Republicans, 23% of Independents and a mere 5% of Democrats (Someone tell John Fetterman that) in support of the conflict.

On the flip side, 56% of Americans outright oppose the war with Iran, with Democrats being the most likely to say so at 88%, with 62% of Independents and 15% of Republicans standing alongside them.

Younger Americans are much more likely to oppose the war than their parents and grandparents are, as only 22% of those under 29 say they support the war in Iran, compared to 43% of those over 65. With that said, there’s majority opposition to the war among every age bracket.

Not only that, but only 31% of Americans believe the war is justified, while 48% say that it’s not justified. While MAGA supporters are on board, with 77% saying it’s justified, independents couldn’t be more different with only 20% saying it’s justified.

The only thing that the Trump administration could do at this point to make the war even less popular would be to deploy ground troops into Iranian territory, and if you believe the reports that have been coming out, that may very well be likely.

A whopping 14% of Americans support sending ground troops into Iran, with barely a third of Republicans supporting the move, alongside 8% of Independents and 3% of Democrats. Otherwise, 64% of Americans oppose the idea, with Democrats and Independents strongly against it, with even one third of Republicans also agreeing.

Unlike the war more broadly, support for deploying ground troops to Iran holds similar levels of support across all age brackets, with those between 45 and 64 holding the highest level of support at 18%. Otherwise, every age bracket has a minimum of 60% in opposition to the move.

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It should come as no surprise then that a comfortable majority of Americans want the war with Iran to be concluded quickly, rather than letting it drag on for much longer.

When asked whether the US should try ending the war quickly, even if it means some of its objectives haven’t been achieved (Which we still have no idea what the purpose of this war is) or whether it should keep fighting until all of those objectives have been achieved, 61% of Americans opted for the former.

Once again, Republicans are an outlier among all groups here, with 52% of Republicans saying the US should keep fighting in Iran until it achieves its objectives. Independents and Democrats were much more likely to say they should end the war now, at 66% and 85%, respectively.

The difference between the ages remains unchanged here, with support for ending the war quickly at 64% among those under 44 and support at 59% for those over the age of 45.

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It’s almost certainly the case that Americans have seen a mix of horrifying headlines, images, and the skyrocketing cost of gas, which has led many Americans to desire a quick end to the war. Yet, the humanitarian aspect cannot be ignored, nor are most Americans doing so.

46% of Americans say they believe the missile strike on an Iranian girls school that was hit at the start of the war, which resulted in 165 people being killed, was indeed caused by the United States, while only 17% say they don’t believe that was the case.

Democrats and Independents were more likely to agree that it was an American missile strike at 70% and 48%, respectively, while a fifth of Republicans also agreed with the assessment from news publications about the strike.

Yet again, when you look at the age breakdown, there’s little difference among Americans, with agreement that the strike was caused by their own military sitting between 44% and 49%.

Lastly, Americans believe the war will continue on for quite some time yet. When asked how long they think the war will last, only 19% said that it would be less than a month, with 3% being so optimistic that they believe it will last a week or less.

Most Americans are not that optimistic. Another 49% said that they believe the war will continue on for another month at least, but won’t last much longer than a year, while another 33% said that they believe the war is likely to last for more than a year.

Republicans were most optimistic, with 28% saying the war will be over in a month or less, compared to 13% of Democrats, while 43% of Democrats say the war will last more than a year compared to 15% of Republicans.

Overall, support remains limited and opposition widespread, with little appetite for escalation. While Americans differ along partisan lines on how the war should be handled, the broader consensus is that this is not a conflict they want to see drag on, and certainly not one they want to deepen.

Welcome to the Polling USA House model for March 15, 2026!

As the US-Iran war kicks off its third week, and with tensions seemingly no closer to resolving themselves in the region, the Republicans continue to face a dire situation at home.

While recent polls have pushed the Republicans slightly closer to the Democrats on the generic ballot, the Democrats are still maintaining a comfortable lead both in the polls and on the model.

Today, the Democrats sit at 235 seats on average, down one seat from last week’s model update. As a result, the Republicans rose one seat to get back into the 200s, but how long that will last is anyone’s guess.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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Welcome to the Polling USA House model for March 8, 2026!

We’re a little over a week into the war with Iran, and things aren’t slowing down anytime soon. Gas prices are spiking in the United States, oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are practically zero, and many nations are about to be on the brink of energy shortages as a result.

This war, launched by Israeli-American forces, has no clear objective in mind and what was supposed to be a quick twenty-minute jaunt into the Middle East seems like it may last for months at the least. We’ll just have to wait and see, but until then the situation in American politics remains broadly the same.

The latest model update has the Democrats retaining 236 seats on average in the race for the House, while the Republicans stay at 199.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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On Tuesday night, voters in North Carolina, Arkansas, and Texas headed to the polls in primary elections that have both shocked the nation and confirmed the inevitable elsewhere. So let’s dig into some of the interesting results from last night!

In perhaps the biggest race of the night, James Talarico, a lone state legislator from the Texas House, came from behind and defeated Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the Texas Democratic Senate primary, doing so in such a manner as to avoid a runoff election.

As of the writing of this article and with 85% of the vote in, Talarico sits at 53.0% statewide, with cities like Austin, San Antonio, El Paso, and many along the Rio Grande Valley helping to launch the state legislator ahead of the Dallas-area Congresswoman, who sits at 45.6%.

There were concerns a third minor candidate, Ahmad Hassan, may cause a runoff should the race have been very tight between Talarico and Crockett, but Hassan’s 1.3% of the vote did not come into play this election cycle.

While we’re waiting for confirmation of Talarico’s victory from major news outlets, the rough math suggests the result may be around 52% for Talarico and 47% for Crockett, should current margins hold. However, it may very well widen to something closer to 54% to 45% if Talarico ends up performing better than the current margins suggest.

Meanwhile, Republicans are in for a gruelling twelve-week runoff primary between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and MAGA warrior and scandal ridden Ken Paxton, after neither reached 50%.

As of the moment, Cornyn secured 42.1% in Texas, doing well against Paxton in the major cities, while Paxton’s rural bent won him 40.8%. The third major candidate, and the one who must be the most cheesed with himself for causing a runoff, is Wesley Hunt, who clocks in at around 13.2% of the vote.

For Talarico, watching Cornyn and Paxton duke it out for the next twelve weeks will give him and his campaign plenty to work with heading into the midterm season. While Donald Trump refused to endorse anyone in the initial primary, he’ll almost certainly throw his hat in the ring and endorse Cornyn or Paxton.

If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on a Paxton endorsement, especially in Trump’s second term. The Republican Party would almost certainly push for Trump to endorse Cornyn, who would be much more likely to defeat Talarico in November, but with how forward Trump has been as of late, it wouldn’t surprise me if he endorses the much riskier option of Paxton.

If Paxton wins, Trump gets another hardline supporter in his party, and if Paxton loses to Talarico, Democrats would be in for one of the greatest midterm nights in a generation.

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Down ballot in Texas there were many races that are noteworthy, but I’ll pick a few that caught my eye!

First off, someone needs to do a wellness check on Dan Crenshaw, who is crashing out of Congress after being defeated by Steve Toth in the TX-02 Republican primary. Toth was endorsed by Trump in the run-up to the election, which functionally sealed Crenshaw’s fate, but perhaps not by as wide a margin as he thought it would be.

As of writing, Toth is ahead with 57.3% of the vote, while Crenshaw is barely below 40% at 39.3%. Something has to be said for a man who wasn’t seen as a strong enough warrior for Trump in the House, despite the fact that Crenshaw has voted with Trump 100% of the time. Loyalty means nothing nowadays.

One newfound politician who will be heading to Congress after winning the Democratic Primary in Jasmine Crockett’s redistricted seat, and one that is deep blue, is Frederick Haynes.

Haynes, a Baptist pastor, won with more than 70% of the vote in the 30th House seat after being endorsed by Crockett, with the next closest candidate at just under 22%. Haynes is quite the character with a powerful way of speaking, which befits someone of his background and standing.

If you want an inkling of where Haynes stands, below is a video of a speech he gave in church barely a day after the October 7th attacks in Israel.

Some other races in Texas include:

• Gina Hinojosa easily winning the DEM GOV race with nearly 60% of the vote. She will go up against Greg Abbott in November.

• Talarico endorsed Bobby Pulido comfortably defeating Crockett endorsed Ada Cuellar in the Democratic Primary for TX-15.

• Incumbent Congressmen, Christian Menefee and Al Green, sit at 46% and 45% in TX-18’s Democratic Primary, after the two were redistricted into the same seat last year.

• Colin Allred, former Democratic Senate candidate in Texas, sits at 45.1% in TX-33, while incumbent Julie Johnson is further back at 33.4%.

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Over in North Carolina, Roy Cooper won with functionally no opposition in the Democratic Senate primary, while Michael Whatley secured nearly two thirds of the Republican vote, sending the two men into an election against one another in November.

NC-04 saw an extremely close race between incumbent Valerie Foushee, who sits at 49.18% of the vote, compared to Nida Allam’s 48.22%. Foushee was the target of a major campaign against incumbents who have taken AIPAC money, as TrackAIPAC suggests she’s taken more than $3,300,000 from the organization and similar donors.

If nothing else, this strongly suggests AIPAC endorsed candidates are going to have a very tough time this year in Democratic primaries, as previous races in New Jersey and New York City have already shown.

Lastly, there’s something in the water in Arkansas, where primaries were held, but a special election is making headlines.

The 70th State House seat was previously won by the Republicans in 2024 with 51% to the Democrats’ 49%. The special election saw the Democrat, Alex Holladay, win with 57.4% of the vote while the Republican, Bo Renshaw, dropped to 42.6%, allowing the Democrats to pick up another seat in the state house.

And that’s all for a quick and dirty recap!

The new primaries will be held on March 10th in Mississippi, while Illinois will hold theirs on March 17, which includes an increasingly competitive Senate election on the Democratic side of the aisle.

After that, Ohio and Indiana are up for their primaries at the start of May, so take in the elections while you can.

Welcome to the Polling USA House model for March 1, 2026!

Well, the United States and Israel have started their bombing campaign of Iran, and as of the writing of this article in the early evening of February 28, Trump has confirmed that the Iranian Ayatollah has been killed in the opening salvo of the war, while also confirming that US airstrikes will continue in the coming weeks.

Given the build up in the Middle East, and the current exchange of fire less than twenty-four hours after the initial airstrikes occurred, it’s safe to say we’re looking down the barrel of a prolonged conflict that will last a couple of weeks at least.

We’ll touch on some of the initial polling preceding and succeeding the opening salvos of this conflict, but for now, this week’s House model has the Democrats dipping two seats to 236, while the Republicans tick up to 199. This is the first movement at the topline in a month, despite the Democrats still holding a comfortable lead in the polls.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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Welcome to the Polling USA House model for February 22, 2026!

With the Supreme Court issuing a major setback to Trump’s economic agenda by declaring the vast majority of his tariffs invoked under IEEPA to be unconstitutional, Republicans are now facing the prospect of defending the continuation of increased taxes on the American people. Trump does not appear to be backing down, issuing a 10% global tariff on all imports, and raising that to 15% the following day.

While Republicans will need to defend cost of living hikes on American families, Democrats have a clear opportunity to push back against Trump’s tariff regime, while positioning themselves as the party that will bring down the cost of living if elected.

Thus far in the year, Democrats remain remarkably stable at 238 seats on the model, where they have sat for the better part of a month, while the Republicans remain far behind at 197.

Although the topline numbers have not changed, Democrats are expanding their likely seat count even further in the model.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further!

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YouGov recently took the pulse of the American public on a number of long-standing social issues facing the nation. From marijuana to the death penalty to belief in climate change, the results offer a revealing snapshot of where the country stands, with a few notable surprises along the way.

Right off the bat, the share of Americans who still support the death penalty for those convicted of murder sits at 47%, while those opposed to the practice sits at just 29%, with another 24% unsure where they stand.

Support is highest among Republicans at 77%, and among those between the ages of 45-64, of whom 58% support the death penalty for murder.

Opposition to the death penalty is highest among Democrats (50%), and those between the ages of 18 and 44 (35%). There is little difference between men and women on this issue, with women being slightly less supportive of the policy.

Where men and women are almost exactly aligned is on the legalization of marijuana, where they sit at 56% and 58% support, respectively, while the nation as a whole sits at 57% support.

There is little real opposition to the legalization of marijuana in the 2020s, with only 28% of Americans still opposed to the idea. Somewhat unexpectedly, those over 65 and those under 29 are the most opposed, at 34% and 32%, respectively.

On the partisan side, 45% of Republicans oppose legalizing marijuana, though 40% support the idea, showing how much the debate has shifted over time. Democrats are the most supportive at 74%, with Independents somewhat lower at 58%.

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The Republican “War On Woke” has not produced overwhelming public backing, at least if YouGov’s survey results on affirmative action programs are any indication. Americans are divided, with 35% in favor of such programs and 28% opposed, while an even larger 37% remain unsure of their position.

Support for affirmative action is relatively similar across age groups, ranging between 30-39%, but opposition is noticeably higher among older Americans. Among those over 65, 36% oppose such programs, compared to 13% of those under 29.

Black Americans are the most supportive of affirmative action programs, with 54% supporting the idea and only 8% opposed, while another 38% remain unsure. Hispanics and white Americans are less supportive, at 34% and 31%, respectively, with opposition considerably higher among both groups compared to Black Americans.

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How about the fight on climate change? Where do Americans stand on the reality of the situation in 2026?

Overall, 59% of Americans say that the climate is changing and that the change is primarily caused by human activity, with younger Americans more likely to take this position than older Americans. Meanwhile, 22% of Americans take a softer denial position, saying the climate is changing but attributing it to natural cycles in the earth’s ecosystem.

Natural warming and cooling periods do occur, but they unfold over tens of thousands of years, not over a couple of hundreds like we have seen recently.

Only 6% of Americans outright deny the existence of climate change by saying the climate is not changing at all. Those over 65 and Republicans are the most likely to take this position at 8% and 12%, respectively.

And lastly, the debate over illegal immigrants and their place in American society remains deeply divided.

Overall, 41% of Americans say that illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the United States and eventually apply for citizenship, while another 7% say they should be allowed to stay but not apply for citizenship. Meanwhile, 38% believe that illegal immigrants should be deported.

Support for deporting illegal immigrants is highest among Republicans at 75%, white Americans at 44%, and those over 65 at 51%. It is not surprising that older white Republicans are among the most supportive of deportation.

Democrats overwhelmingly believe, at 77%, that illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay and eventually gain citizenship, with 38% of Independents and 48% of those under 29 agreeing. That position is also the most popular among Hispanics at 48%, compared to 26% who believe illegal immigrants should be deported.

Overall, while Americans can agree on issues like climate change and marijuana legalization, other issues such as illegal immigration and the death penalty offer much sharper contrasts between Americans, especially across partisan and generation lines.