Welcome to the Polling USA model for July 19, 2026!

Let’s dive right into the House ratings, which see the Democrats lose six seats to land at 223, while the Republicans gain six seats to reach 212. The Democrats' new likely seat range sits between 210 and 241, while Republicans are between 194 and 225.

On the Senate front, Republicans are stuck alongside the Democrats. Republicans now sit at 50 seats, while Democrats are also at 50, with the Republican likely seat range between 48 and 52, while Democrats are also between 48 and 52 seats.

The Governor's races have tightened, thanks to a slight change to the model. Democrats remain ahead with 26 governorships, while Republicans sit at 24. The new likely seat range for Democrats is between 23 and 28 seats, while Republicans now sit between 22 and 27 seats.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!

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Polling from YouGov for The Economist takes a look at how Americans view sexual assault allegations against candidates for public office, and whether they believe the political parties do a good job handling allegations involving their own candidates.

YouGov asked whether candidates for elected office who are accused of sexual assault should be able to remain in the race unless the allegations are proven, or whether they should drop out unless they can disprove the allegations.

Overall, 61% of Americans believe that candidates facing sexual assault allegations should drop out of their respective races, while only 25% say they should remain in the race until those allegations are proven true.

Democrats and Independents were more likely to say candidates should drop out, at 75% among Democrats and 60% among Independents, while Republicans were less likely to agree, at 48%.

MAGA supporters were the least likely to say a candidate should drop out, with the largest share saying a candidate should remain in the race unless the allegations are proven true, at 43%.

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When it comes to how often people believe political candidates are unfairly accused of sexual assault, the gap between the parties is quite striking.

Overall, 15% of Americans believe political candidates are often falsely accused of sexual assault, while 46% say they are sometimes falsely accused, another 34% say they are rarely falsely accused, and 5% say they are never falsely accused.

Republicans and MAGA supporters were the most likely to say candidates are often falsely accused, with 24% to 26% saying so, compared to 9% to 12% of Democrats and Independents. In addition, 57% to 58% of Republicans say candidates are sometimes falsely accused of sexual assault, compared to 35% to 47% of Democrats and Independents.

So, how do Americans think each party handles sexual assault allegations against its own candidates? For Democrats, only 22% of Americans believe the party handles such allegations well, while another 56% disagree, saying the party handles them only fairly or poorly.

The picture among Democrats themselves is not much better, with 43% saying their party handles allegations against its candidates well, while another 43% say it handles them poorly, leaving opinion split right down the middle.

Among Independents, 14% say Democrats handle sexual assault allegations well, while 55% say they handle them only fairly or poorly. The view among Republicans is even more negative, with 69% of Republicans and 75% of MAGA supporters giving the Democratic Party poor marks for how it handles these allegations.

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However, Republicans do not fare much better when it comes to handling sexual assault allegations involving their own candidates. Among all Americans, 20% say the Republican Party handles these situations excellently or well, while 60% say it handles them only fairly or poorly, putting the party in an even worse position than the Democrats.

That makes sense. Graham Platner was forced out as the Maine Senate Democratic nominee before he was even elected, while Donald Trump was elected not once but twice, all while being found liable for sexual abuse in court.

But don’t tell MAGA supporters that.

Among MAGA supporters, 55% say their party does a good job handling sexual assault allegations against its own candidates, while only 29% say it does a bad job. Among Republicans more broadly, 47% say the party does a good job, while 32% say it does a bad job.

The situation among Independents and Democrats is no better for Republicans, with 86% of Democrats and 61% of Independents saying the Republican Party does a bad job handling sexual assault allegations involving its own candidates, while only 4% of Democrats and 11% of Independents disagree.

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for July 12, 2026!

Well, it’s been a helluva week in Maine politics, but I’ll get to that in a moment! For now, Gallup’s latest polling finds Democratic leaners at 49% and Republican leaners at 39%, making the electorate even bluer than in 2018 (D +7-8), and considerably bluer than 2022 when it was D +1 or 2024 when it was R +1.

Regardless, Democratic House seats now stand at 229 while Republican House seats have slipped to 206, widening the gap between the parties slightly this week. Democrats are projected to win between 213 and 242 seats, while Republicans are projected to secure between 193 and 222.

On the Senate side, a return to baseline in the Maine Senate race, along with Texas shifting slightly back toward the Republicans, has once again produced an even split, with both Democrats and Republicans sitting at 50 seats each. Democrats continue to have the higher ceiling, ranging from 48 to 54 seats, while Republicans are projected between 46 and 52 seats.

Finally, the governor model remains unchanged this week, with Democrats holding 28 seats and Republicans holding 22. Democrats are projected to win between 25 and 31 governor's mansions, while Republicans are projected to win between 19 and 25.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for July 5, 2026!

As we head into the dog days of summer, we're seeing a flood of new polling from across the country, and some of the results are certainly turning heads!

In the House, Democrats have gained one seat in the model, bringing them to 228 seats, while Republicans are down to 207. The likely range for Democrats remains between 212 and 242 seats, while Republicans are projected to finish between 193 and 223 seats.

Meanwhile, the Senate race remains highly competitive as we move deeper into the summer. Democrats are now projected to hold 52 seats, up one from the previous update, while Republicans sit at 48. The likely range for Democrats is between 48 and 54 seats, while Republicans fall between 46 and 52.

Lastly, thanks in part to some of the wild polling we've seen recently (which I'll get into below), Democratic prospects in the gubernatorial races have continued to improve. The current projection still has Democrats winning 28 governorships and Republicans 22, but the Democrats' upper range increased by two seats while the Republicans' maximum fell by two.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!

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New polling from YouGov for the Economist takes a look at a variety of opinions on socialism, including whether Americans support more traditionally socialist policies such as eliminating private health insurance.

To start, 32% of Americans say they have a favorable view of socialism, while 39% have an unfavorable view. Another 29% say they are unsure where they stand on the issue.

Young people are significantly more supportive of socialism, with those under 29 holding a net favorability of +20. Those between 30 and 44 are only one point underwater.

Democrats are overwhelmingly supportive of socialism, with a net favorability of +47. Independents sit at -4, while Republicans are at -60. Even so, 11% of Republicans have a favorable view of socialism, which is consistent with previous polling on the issue.

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When asked which economic system they would rather live under, capitalism continues to hold a comfortable lead over its socialist counterpart.

Overall, 44% of Americans say they would rather live under a capitalist system, including 74% of Republicans, 35% of Independents, and even 22% of Democrats. The older Americans are, the more likely they are to prefer capitalism over socialism.

However, among Democrats, socialism is viewed as the better economic system by a 12 point margin over capitalism, although 44% of Democrats remain unsure. Likewise, 46% of Independents are unsure which system is better, though among those with an opinion, capitalism leads socialism by 35% to 19%.

Overall, 39% of Americans say they would prefer a bigger government with more services, while 35% would rather have a smaller government with fewer services. Another 25% remain unsure. Even so, Americans tend to support several policies that are commonly associated with socialism.

When it comes to the government building public housing, 57% support the idea while 24% oppose it. Support is strongest among those under 44, reaching 67%. Similarly, 55% of Americans support the government covering college tuition, compared to 34% who oppose it. Once again, support is highest among those under 44 at 64%.

The biggest example is eliminating private health insurance, with 52% of Americans supporting the proposal while only 30% oppose it. Support is highest among Democrats at 77%, though even a majority of Independents at 57% and nearly one third of Republicans at 31% also support the idea.

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The survey also asked whether the Democratic Party is a socialist party, and the results are a little amusing.

Overall, 31% say the Democratic Party is socialist, including 61% of Republicans, 17% of Independents, and 41% of those over 65. Arguably, Fox News has convinced many conservatives that the Democratic Party is far more socialist than it actually is, despite the party remaining well within the political mainstream.

On the other hand, 33% say the Democratic Party is not socialist, including 56% of Democrats and 36% of Independents. It is also notable that 39% of those under 44 reject the idea that the Democratic Party is socialist, which gives some perspective on how far the party would have to move before it could reasonably be described that way.

Lastly, when asked whether they would ever vote for a Democratic Socialist, Americans lean against the label. Overall, 29% say they would vote for a Democratic Socialist, while 45% say they would not. However, 62% of Democrats say they would support a Democratic Socialist, which could provide plenty of room for the continued growth of candidates affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America who have already won office or are seeking election to Congress.

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for June 28, 2026!

If you believe the rumours going around, then we're a little less than two weeks away from the United States hitting an oil crisis, as there's been plenty of talk about major oil producers labelling July 9th as the endpoint for the ongoing Iran US war. Whether that day comes and goes without issue, or whether we're in for a walloping, is another question.

Until then, polls have slowly improved for the Democrats heading into this week. In the House, the Democrats are back up three seats to finish at 227, while the Republicans are down to 208, with the Democratic likely average between 212 and 242, while the Republicans are between 193 and 223.

Likewise, the situation in the Senate has gotten a little better, with the Democrats gaining one seat to 51 and the Republicans falling to 49 seats. The Democratic likely seat range is now between 48 and 53, while the Republicans are between 47 and 52.

And now we have a governor model!

Democrats have an advantage going into the governor elections this year, meaning their ceiling is much closer to their likely seat count, while Republicans are much closer to their minimum seat count.

Overall, the Democrats would be expected to win around 28 governorships this year, compared to the Republicans' 22, with the Democratic seat count between 25 and 29, while the Republicans are between 21 and 25.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for June 21, 2026!

Well, we’re in for yet another week where the Democrats have slipped slightly in the polls and the Republicans continue recovering from their recent polling lows, all while Trump records his lowest approval ratings yet on the economy and inflation.

With the Democratic polling average dropping to 5% this week, the Democrats and Republicans have continued closing the gap between each other, though that trend has not been nearly as evident on the Senate side.

On the House side of things, the Democrats now sit at 224 seats, down three from the last update, while the Republicans have climbed to 211, up three. The Democratic average now places the party between 210 and 236 seats, while the Republican average has them between 199 and 225.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Senate remains about as stable as it has been. The Republicans and Democrats both sit at 50 seats each, while their respective seat ranges remain between 48 and 52 seats.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for June 14, 2026!

This week marked the 60th or so time that Donald Trump has declared an end to the Iran War, while Graham Platner cruised to victory with nearly 72% of the vote in Maine’s Democratic Senate election.

So what’s happening with Democrats all of a sudden?!

This week saw the generic ballot polling average fall to a recent low of 5.8% in favour of the Democrats. That decline has pushed their odds slightly lower, but they are not entering panic territory just yet.

In the House, Democrats would still be expected to win about 227 seats, unchanged from last week, while Republicans remain at 208 seats. However, the Democrats’ likely seat range has narrowed to 212-239, while the Republicans have expanded theirs to 196-223.

Over on the Senate side of things, the situation has become a complete deadlock. Democrats and Republicans would both be expected to win about 50 seats each, while their likely seat ranges are identical at 48-52.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the recent polls and model results!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for June 7, 2026!

This week brought a boost for the Republican Party in the polls, and while it moved them closer to the majority threshold, the Democrats continue to maintain the upper hand.

Today, the Democrats stand at 227 seats, down six from their previous total of 233, while the Republicans have gained six seats to reach 208. Current polling margins place the Democrats between 212 and 242 seats, while Republicans range between 193 and 223 seats. It is a stronger position for the GOP, though their lower bound remains far from ideal.

On the Senate side, however, the picture has shifted considerably. Democrats and Republicans are now tied at 50 seats apiece, with Democrats losing one seat and Republicans gaining one. At present, both parties are projected to finish between 49 and 51 seats.

Let’s chat further about some of the recent polls and model results!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 31, 2026!

With the Democratic averages continuing to rise ahead of this year’s midterms, the Republicans are either going to have to put up, or take a huge hit in November. Along with Trump’s newest deadline with Iran (For the 59th time), the struggling economy, and prices continuing to rise, the Republicans may be running out of time.

On the current averages for the House, the Democrats win about 233 seats, unchanged from last week, while the Republicans win 202 seats, unchanged the same period (This is because of the Louisiana gerrymander). The real point of notice is among the seat results, with the Democrats winning between 219 and 245 seats, while the Republicans are now below the necessary threshold for a majority, sitting between 190 and 216.

The Senate races are a little closer with the newest averages kicking in. In that race, the Senate sits at 51 seats for the Democrats and 49 seats for the Republicans, leaving the Republicans just outside their chances for control of the chamber. Though, unlike the House seats, the Republicans could still easily finish first with their seat range between 46 and 51 seats, while Democrats sit between 49 and 54.

Let’s chat further about some of the recent polls, and a couple of changes to the model!

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In the latest round of polling from Overton Insights, we’re getting results on gas prices, a potential military draft, whether Americans consider being pro-Israel the same as being pro-Nazi, and finally some primary polling.

First off, Americans were asked whether gas prices have impacted their regular spending habits. Overall, 47% said they have significantly impacted their spending, with another 19% saying they have moderately impacted it, while only 31% said gas prices are affecting their spending only a little or not at all.

Respondents were then asked whether rising gas prices make them more likely, less likely, or make no difference in their support for the Republican Party.

Overall, Americans say they are 12% more likely to support the Republican Party, while an overwhelming majority (57%) say they are more likely to oppose the Republican Party, with 31% saying it makes no difference.

Among Republicans, 77% either say it makes no difference or that they would support Republicans more, while 23% say it makes them less likely to support them. Among independents, the numbers are even worse for Republicans, with 36% saying it makes no difference while a much larger share (64%) say it makes them less likely to support the party.

The survey then moved on to ask about Donald Trump and whether him implementing a military draft would make Americans support or oppose the idea.

Overall, only 25% of Americans say they would support the proposal, with 43% of Republicans, 16% of Independents, and 10% of Democrats agreeing with the idea. Meanwhile, 66% of Americans oppose it, including 86% of Democrats, 80% of Independents, and even 41% of Republicans.

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Perhaps the most important question on this list was whether being pro-Israel or pro-Nazi carries a bigger stigma, and the results are somewhat surprising.

Overall, 34% of Americans say being publicly pro-Nazi carries a larger social stigma, while 16% say being pro-Israel carries the bigger stigma. However, an even 25% of Americans say that being pro-Israel and being pro-Nazi carry the same level of stigma. Another 14% say neither carries much stigma, while 11% are unsure.

Among Republicans, 31% say that being pro-Israel carries a bigger stigma, while 19% say being pro-Nazi does, and another 20% of their own base believe the two are viewed equally. Among Independents, the share who say the two are the same remains unchanged, though only 11% say being pro-Israel carries a bigger stigma compared to 37% who say being pro-Nazi does.

Finally, among Democrats, the share who say the two are viewed equally sits at 32%, while the share who say being pro-Nazi carries the bigger stigma rises to 47%. Just 4% say being pro-Israel carries the bigger stigma.

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Let’s move onto the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries, because there are definitely some interesting numbers here.

On the Republican side, they found that 39% would vote for Vance, though Marco Rubio comes in close behind at 32%, leaving little breathing room for the Vice President. Another 9% say they would vote for Ron DeSantis, while 4% each say they would vote for either Josh Hawley or Nikki Haley, with another 2% saying the same for Cotton.

However, in a direct matchup between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, the situation flips completely. The poll found Rubio leading with 42% of the vote, while Vance sits at 36%, with the remaining 22% undecided. However, the Democratic side is even more chaotic.

Among all Democrats, they found that Buttigieg leads the field at 16%, while Newsom and AOC follow at 13% and 12%, respectively. Below them are Sanders and Harris at 9% each, while Shapiro sits at 8%. Booker comes in at 7%, Kelly at 4%, and Beshear at 3%, while another 19% say they want someone else or remain undecided.

What’s even more surprising is the head to head result between AOC and Newsom. The poll found that AOC would defeat Newsom by eight points, with AOC at 43% and Newsom at 35%, while the remaining 22% are undecided.

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Finally, regardless of what happens in the primaries, the poll asked who voters would be most likely to support if the election were held between Newsom and Vance.

Overall, 44% said they would vote for Newsom, while another 39% chose Vance instead. The remaining share of the vote was split between those who would not vote (8%) and those who are undecided (9%).

Newsom holds a comfortable lead among Democrats at 80%, while 7% say they would instead vote for Vance. Meanwhile, the share of Republicans who say they would vote for Vance sits at 81%, while 5% say they would vote for Newsom.

However, it is the response among independent voters that is the most surprising, with 56% saying they would vote for Newsom, while only 12% say they would vote for Vance. The remaining 24% say they are undecided, while 8% say they would not vote at all.

New polling from is taking a look at the opinions of several notable individuals in American political life.

Right off the bat, the single most disliked individual in American politics is Erika Kirk, whose favorability sits at 28%, while her unfavorability is much higher at 54%. Another 12% have no opinion of her, while 6% have never heard of her.

The next two on the list are Ben Shapiro and Candace Owens, both of whom share 17% favorability ratings. However, Shapiro’s unfavorables sit at 44%, while Owens sits at 40%. Nearly the same share of respondents said they are unfamiliar with them, at 28% for Shapiro and 29% for Owens, while the rest said they had never heard of them.

The next two are individuals running for office on the Republican side: Spencer Pratt and James Fishback. Pratt is the better known of the two, with 25% viewing him favorably and 29% viewing him unfavorably. Another 31% said they do not have an opinion of him, while 15% have heard of him but still hold no view.

The other is Fishback, where only 10% view him favorably and 23% unfavorably, while a whopping 53% do not have an opinion and 14% have heard of him but hold no view.

Onto the Democratic side of things, and we have Graham Platner and Hasan Piker. Platner posts a result of 19% favorability and 25% unfavorability, with 37% not knowing who he is and 19% not having an opinion of him.

The only person who performed worse than Fishback was Piker, where 10% view him favorably and 19% unfavorably, with 56% not knowing who he is and 15% not having an opinion.

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Among Republicans, Erika Kirk actually performs the best of the group, with 62% viewing her favorably and 21% unfavorably. That is followed by 46% having a favorable view of Spencer Pratt and 13% viewing him unfavorably.

Perhaps what is a little funny is that Owens and Shapiro both sit underwater among Republicans, despite both having their strongest bases there. Shapiro and Owens sit at 24% and 25% favorability respectively, while their unfavorables sit at 28% and 32%, with large shares saying they have heard of them but hold no opinion either way.

Fishback had the lowest net approvals, but once again, 55% of respondents had never heard of him before.

Compare that to Platner and Piker, both of whom have little to no favorability among Republicans as expected, and much higher unfavorables at 46% for Platner and 27% for Piker. While 36% had never heard of Platner, an even larger share of Republicans had never heard of Piker either at 55%.

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Moving onto Democrats, the situation for almost all the Republicans remains quite poor.

Erika Kirk is the single most disliked individual in this poll, with 79% unfavorability, while only 6% say they have a favorable opinion of her. That is followed by Shapiro and Pratt, both sitting at 12% favorability, although 53% say they view Shapiro unfavorably and 44% say the same of Pratt.

For Candace Owens, she is only beaten out by Erika Kirk, with 8% viewing her favorably, while another 55% view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, 20% say they do not know who she is.

Perhaps the most surprising results are those among Democrats. Platner remains ahead with 30% viewing him favorably and only 12% viewing him unfavorably, which might suggest the outcry against Platner is far overblown within his own party. However, 37% say they do not know who he is, while another 21% say they do not have an opinion of him.

Even more surprising is the Piker result. With many claiming that Piker will ruin the Democratic Party if he gets anywhere near it, the numbers appear to suggest the opposite. While Piker has a 19% favorability rating and a 13% unfavorability rating, a whopping 54% of Democrats have no clue who he is, while another 14% say they do not have an opinion of him.

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Finally, we move onto independents, where the situation is not much better for the likes of Kirk and Shapiro either.

Kirk, once again, comes in at 8% favorability and a terrible 65% unfavorability. That is only slightly ahead of Shapiro’s 12% favorability, while his unfavorability remains extremely high at 55%.

The other three Republican figures, Owens, Pratt, and Fishback, come in at 17%, 9%, and 4% favorability respectively. Meanwhile, their unfavorables range between 20% and 29%, with Pratt and Fishback both posting noticeable unfavorables at 43% and 54%.

Which just leaves the two Democratic individuals on the list.

Platner remains ahead with independents at 26% favorability compared to 11% unfavorability, with 35% not knowing who he is and another 28% saying they have no opinion of him.

Piker, on the other hand, remains at 10% favorability and 17% unfavorability, which just goes to show how little he matters in the broader situation. Not only that, but 59% say they have never heard of him, while another 14% say they have heard of him but do not have an opinion.

Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 24, 2026!

This week has been a relatively quiet week (Or as quiet as you can manage) on the Trump front, so instead we’ll dive straight into the projections and the rest of the polls this week!

Up first is the House, which has seen very little change in the averages, although the safe seats for each are only growing as time goes on. The averages sit at 233 for the Democrats and 202 for the Republicans, which remains unchanged since last week.

Where the seats continue to increase is along those safe seats for each party. Since April 19, the Democrats have seen their seat count slowly rise from 242 to 256, while the Republicans have slowly dropped from 193 to 179.

The reason for this is simply that a bunch of safe Republican seats have been turned into likely seats in the redistricting, and as such has led to many fewer seats being on the board. Democrats are naturally picking up a few of those closer seats, though they’re still unlikely to win such seats to begin with.

Over to the Senate side, and things are remaining stable this time around. The Democrats remain at 52 seats on average, while the Republicans are below 48 seats. Relatively small leads in Alaska and Ohio keep those numbers nice and close, but have the Democrats ahead nonetheless.

Let’s chat more about the recent changes and the polls!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 17, 2026!

After a week of polls, we’re starting to see the split between the Republicans and Democrats go in separate directions. But first, before we get to that, let’s take a look at this week’s model update.

This week saw the Democrats rise three seats to 233, while the Republicans subsequently saw their numbers drop to 202. What’s definitely gotten larger over time is the share of safe and non-safe seats, which have seen their respective margins increase.

Where the situation is more interesting is in the senate race, which is off to the races as of late. This week we’re seeing the model average tick up for the Democrats to 52 seats, up two from last week, while the share of Republican seats is officially below the result at 48.

While we’re going to get into the senate seats in the model, it’s important to realize that this is what happens when you have a seven point or higher model average.

Let’s chat more about the recent changes!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for May 10, 2026!

This is my first welcome home post since I've come back from having a stroke! You’ll have to bear with me as I struggle through the next few posts.

First off, the topline today has the Democrats sitting at 230 seats, unchanged from the 230 they held last go around. The Republicans sit at 205 seats, also unchanged over the same period.

Meanwhile, the Republicans and Democrats have entered into their single closest race yet. The Democrats and Republicans are both tied at 50 seats apiece, as per this week’s piece, leaving the Republicans down one and the Democrats up one.

Let’s chat more about the recent changes!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for April 19, 2026!

With the situation in the Middle East trundling along for the Trump administration, and a flurry of mixed messages from both sides as per usual, the situation on the polling front isn’t dramatically different.

There was a notable shift in the House model, but not because of any polling shift. I’ve adjusted the model regarding a number of the closest seats in Congress, which I’ll explain below the subscriber line.

Nevertheless, the Democrats sit at 230 seats on the current model, with their likely seat count between 209 and 242, which is naturally much closer and more competitive than the pre-model adjustment result.

At the same time, the Republicans sit at 205 seats, with their likely seat count between 193 and 226, suggesting the result for Republicans could keep them in the majority if the polling error broke hard for them.

The Senate side of things remains quiet, with the Republicans at 51 seats, with a range of 48 to 54 seats, and the Democrats at 49 seats, with a range of 46 to 52 seats.

Let’s chat about the model changes and take a look at the brand new interactive Senate and House maps!

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for April 12, 2026!

This week we saw a ceasefire in the war with Iran that is barely functional as it stands, inflation rise to its worst point in almost two years thanks to the oil crisis, and Melania Trump seemingly blind siding her husband by making an impromptu statement about how she has never been involved with Epstein.

It has been another eventful week in American politics, although the averages seem relatively calm in comparison.

The Democrats remain stable at 236 seats on average this week in the House model, while the Republicans sit at 199 seats. In the likely seat ranges, the Democrats would be expected to win between 220 and 245 seats, while the Republicans are between 190 and 215 seats.

The Senate side of things also remains quiet, with the Republicans holding the lead at 51 seats on average while the Democrats sit at 49 seats. Likewise, the likely seat ranges have the Republicans between 48 and 54 seats, while the Democrats are between 46 and 52 seats.

Given how many races we still have to wait on until the primaries are complete, do not expect the Senate model to swing around quite as much as the House model may in the coming months.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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Welcome to the Polling USA model for April 5, 2026!

With the oil markets threatening to spike further after Trump’s less than reassuring address to the nation Wednesday evening, his polling on the Iran war front isn’t any more cheery. As the war drags on, the situation for Trump becomes more untenable, with pressure mounting on his administration.

More on those numbers in a minute.

The Democrats and Republicans are stable this week, with the Democrats winning 236 seats on the current House model, while the Republicans pick up the other 199. The Democratic likely seat range sits between 220 and 244, while the Republicans would be expected to win anywhere between 191 and 215 seats.

The Senate situation remains stable as well, with the Republicans expected to win 51 seats on the current averages, and the Democrats picking up the other 49. Though, the Democrats’ floor ticked up one seat this week, while the Republicans’ ceiling moved inversely, as Republicans would win between 48 and 54 Senate seats, while the Democrats would be between 46 and 52.

Overall, the Democrats maintain their lead in the House race, while the Senate still favors the Republicans, if not in a coin flip environment at the moment.

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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Newly released polling from the Senate Majority PAC (D), conducted by GQR, finds the Texas Republican senate primary heating up ahead of the May 26th runoff election to see who will face off against Democratic candidate, James Talarico.

On the initial ballot, Ken Paxton holds a lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with Paxton sitting at 47% of the primary vote compared to 42% for Cornyn. This would mark the sixth poll out of seven released since the initial primaries that find Paxton ahead of Cornyn.

The situation may not be salvageable for Cornyn, even if he can manage to earn the coveted Trump endorsement ahead of the primaries. The poll re-asked the ballot question in a scenario where Trump endorses Cornyn for the seat, and one where Trump stays out of the race and doesn’t endorse either candidate.

In the event Trump stays out of the race, Paxton would earn 48% of the primary vote compared to 42% for Cornyn, with 10% remaining undecided. However, with Trump’s endorsement, Cornyn would inch up one point to 43%, while Paxton would tick down one point to 47%, still leaving Paxton in the lead.

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GQR also conducted a ballot question which followed a series of negative messages about Cornyn and Paxton, and positive ones about Paxton. Unfortunately, we don’t have the exact wording of those questions, though they seemed to center around issues on gun control, the border, and a variety of positions related to Trump and voting for Biden nominees in Cornyn’s case.

Nevertheless, post-negatives for Paxton find Cornyn jumping ahead, with himself at 48% and Paxton at 41%, while post-positives for Paxton find the two men tied at 43% a piece. The biggest concern about Paxton running against Talarico is that the man carries a lot of controversial baggage that has Republicans concerned about his electability, even in deep red Texas.

Post-negatives for Cornyn found Paxton holding roughly the same lead over the incumbent senator as the initial ballot finds at 47% to 41%.

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Ultimately, the race is going to come down to who Republicans in Texas like more between the two senate candidates, and unfortunately for Cornyn, it would seem Paxton has the edge in that regard.

Among Texas Republicans, 56% say they have a favorable view of Ken Paxton, while 43% say they have an unfavorable one. Compare that to the 51% who have an unfavorable view of Cornyn, and 47% who have a favorable one, and it becomes clear why Cornyn is dragging behind his senate challenger.

Given Paxton is seen as much more pro-MAGA than Cornyn is, it may not be that surprising that Cornyn is struggling to win his seat back. The poll found 85% of likely primary voters consider themselves to be MAGA, compared to 69% who say they’re strong republicans.

Add in the fact that the poll finds 38% of Paxton’s supporters consider themselves to be ‘Strong Paxton’ voters, compared to 30% of Cornyn’s supporters who say they’re ‘Strong Cornyn’ voters, and there may even be a slight enthusiasm gap against the incumbent senator.

In the end, unless the dynamics of the race shift significantly between now and election day, Cornyn appears to be facing an uphill battle. With Paxton maintaining consistent leads, stronger favorability among primary voters, and a base that seems more energized, Republican leadership may end up sweating a lot more over Texas come November.

Welcome to the Polling USA model for March 29, 2026!

We spent a few days there wondering what the cryptic, frankly ARG-like videos and images the Trump administration was putting out were, but in the end it ended up just being a White House app. I’m leaving it at that, because frankly, what a stupid idea.

On the news front, the Iran war continues unabated, with timelines shifting once again. This past week we heard that the war will be over in two to four weeks, while also being told that it’ll be over by the China summit, which is slated for about seven weeks from now.

The markets have been in a state of uncertainty, to put it mildly, with Trump’s weekly promises of the war ending soon helping to soothe markets on a Monday, only for them to tank again on a Friday.

The other thing that’s been relatively calm and stable for the last little while is the seat projections on the House model. The Democrats ticked up to 236 on the House averages, while the Republicans ticked down to 199, keeping the two parties in the same situation they’ve been in since the start of February.

This is also the soft launch of the Senate projections, which should be taken with a grain of salt, as all Senate seat projections will be impacted by polling averages in their respective states. For now, those states that don’t have confirmed candidates rely on previous election results much more heavily than those that do.

Nevertheless, the Senate situation is not much different from the situation in the House, although it’s the Republicans that hold the lead at 51 seats on average, compared to 49 seats for the Democrats. Democrats will need to win 51 seats in the Senate if they want to block out Vance’s tie-breaking vote (and maybe 52 if they don’t want to rely on Fetterman all the time).

Let’s chat about some of the recent polls and cover the model results further.

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